Key Takeaways:
– Hurricane Milton, a Category 1 hurricane, emerged in the Gulf of Mexico.
– A major concern is flash flooding that can occur well inland.
– Milton is the 13th named storm of an above-average hurricane season in 2024.
– In 2023, the warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic countered the usual El Niño effect that hinders storm formation.
– Forecasters expect more storms this year due to the return of even warmer ocean temperatures.
– The diminishing El Niño pattern likely sets the stage for more storm formation and intensification.
The Arrival of Hurricane Milton
Emerging in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Milton was categorized as a Category 1 storm on Sunday afternoon. Displaying sustained wind speeds of 85 miles per hour, Milton poses a risk to coastal regions and surrounding areas.
The Potential of Flash Flooding
An important factor to consider is the potential for flash flooding. Flooding can occur well inland and away from Milton’s center, even with weaker storms. The excessive rainfall can easily overwhelm low-lying regions, causing significant damage.
Satellite Overview of the Storm
The vigor, magnitude, and cohesion of such storms can be ascertained from satellite imagery. As a storm gains strength, the formation of an eye becomes increasingly likely. A symmetrical eye indicates that the storm isn’t encountering resistance that would weaken it.
An Above-Average Hurricane Season
Milton marks the 13th named storm in the Atlantic in 2024. Earlier in May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasted an above-normal cycle, predicting between 17 to 25 named storms. This prediction follows an exceptionally active year with 20 named storms.
The Impact of Ocean Temperatures on Storm Formations
Typically, an El Niño pattern would have curbed the number of hurricanes. However, in 2023, the warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic negated the restrictive effects of El Niño. These warm conditions have not only returned but have escalated, increasing the likelihood and intensity of storms.
The Waning Influence of El Niño
Interestingly, the El Niño pattern, which was present last year, is also waning, potentially facilitating more suitable conditions for storm formations. Since hurricanes require a calm environment, a potent El Niño increases the wind shear, thwarting storm formations.
Without the El Niño influence this year, it’s more likely that clouds can gain the tall stature needed to sustain a powerful cyclone.
Predictions and Mitigation Efforts
Armed with the knowledge from satellite imagery, predictions are made for up to five days. These predictions help determine the arrival times of potentially damaging winds for select cities, which aids in preparation for these storms.
Storm surge data provides valuable insight into which parts of the coast may become flooded. However, actual flood areas might differ depending on variables like rainfall and waves.
To sum up, Hurricane Milton’s arrival underscores the ongoing trend of an above-average hurricane season for 2024. As the climate continues to change, staying informed and prepared is crucial for safety and disaster prevention. Proactive measures, such as tracking storm paths and coordinating mitigation activities, are paramount in minimizing the impact of these storms.