Key Takeaways:
– Delegates from about 200 countries convene at the COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.
– Concerns grow over the United States’ climate commitments amid possible Trump presidency.
– Unprecedented greenhouse gas emissions recorded in 2023 despite decreasing rates in 42 countries.
– Several world leaders absent from COP29 due to various reasons.
– Potential US withdrawal from climate agreements might isolate the country and impact global climate negotiations.
COP29 Begins Amid Uncertainty over US’s Climate Commitments
As nearly 200 nations assemble for the crucial COP29 summit in Baku, uncertainty looms over the United States’ climate commitments. The shadow of doubt stems from election winner Donald Trump’s stance on the Paris Climate Agreement. Trump hinted at exiting the climate pact if he secures a second term as president.
What is the Paris Climate Agreement?
The Paris Climate Agreement, signed in 2016, is an international pact aiming to curb greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Trump previously withdrew the US from the agreement during his first term. However, the country rejoined under President Biden.
American Climate Commitments: A History
The US has been part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) since 1992. The country regularly attends its conferences or Conference of Parties (COP). The nation participated in last year’s COP28 held in Dubai. However, the conservative blueprint, Project 2025 by the Heritage Foundation, proposes that the US should withdraw from both the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement.
What’s COP29?
The United Nations Climate Change Conference or COP29 brings together world leaders and representatives of nations that are party to the UNFCCC. The aim is to review the progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with each country setting its own targets and action plan. Despite these efforts, the world is yet to meet the set climate objectives.
Record-Breaking Greenhouse Gas Emissions
The year 2023 witnessed unprecedented greenhouse gas emissions. On a positive note, emissions are decreasing in 42 countries, including big players such as the US, China, Russia and the European Union. However, without increased reductions, a temperature increase of over 3 degrees Celsius is expected, leading to devastating impacts on people, planets and economies.
The Attendees at COP29
The US delegation at COP29 includes key figures such as John Podesta, Senior Presidential Advisor for International Climate Policy, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack among others. The COP29 event is smaller due to several factors, including fewer attendance passes, limited hotel accommodation and concerns over Azerbaijan’s human rights record and oil-based economy.
Consequences of a Likely US Withdrawal from Climate Agreements
Pulling out of major climate agreements may put the US in a tight spot during global climate negotiations. A US exit might also prompt nations like China to reassess their emission reduction. Nonetheless, state and local governments, businesses and nonprofits in the US are expected to continue their fight against climate change.
The Future
Exiting the Paris Agreement could take a minimum of a year, and a future president could decide to rejoin, as seen during Biden’s term. Conversely, withdrawing from the UNFCCC could have more profound long-term impacts. It might exclude the US from global climate discussions and affect its influence on negotiations in the future. The US Senate ratified the UNFCCC in 1992, so withdrawal could be more complex.