New Political Landscape
In the wake of recent Congressional elections, Republicans have triumphantly clinched control over the U.S. House of Representatives, signifying their first federal trifecta encounter since 2017. However, this feat does not come without obstacles. The GOP majority, while a seemingly powerful position, could teeter precariously due to one single vacancy. This possibility opens dialogue on a long-forgotten issue – the capability of aging or ill lawmakers to efficiently carry out their duties or even retain their seats.
The Aging Congressional Caucus
The mean age of the 118th Congress was 57.9 for the House and 64 for the Senate in November, with multiple Californian representatives among the twenty eldest in the House. These include Maxine Waters, aged 86, Nancy Pelosi, Doris Matsui, and John Garamendi. Furthermore, many politicians have recently reported serious health diagnoses. For instance, John Garamendi, representing California’s 8th District, disclosed his battle with a rare blood cancer and has embarked on chemo-immunotherapy treatment.
The Issue of Legislative Replacement
The only way to replace a physically or mentally incapacitated incumbent federal legislator who does not willingly resign necessitates a decisive two-thirds vote for removal, triggering their state’s governor to call a special election. Interestingly, this situation has not occurred in Congressional history.
Prior Replacements & Contingency Planning
As per the 17th Amendment over a century ago, Senators can be temporarily appointed until a special election fills the vacancy. When a Congress member passes away or resigns before their term expires, the same rule applies. House members, however, do not have the advantage of interim arrangements. Hence the suggestion for a constitutional amendment to allow House to fill open seats with temporary appointments has been brought up. This would prevent a potential upheaval of voter’s choices.
Calls for A Constitutional Amendment
Rep. Zoe Lofgren, a prominent Democrat who represents the Bay Area, advocates for the need for a contingency plan in the name of national security and government continuity. She suggests that constitutional amendment could be the perfect preventive measure against malicious actors aiming to break down our leader structure in Congress.
However, she acknowledges a recurring problem with this proposition: a constitutional amendment needs major backing from each congressional chamber and ratification from three-quarters of state legislatures.
The Shifting Power Balance
Previous alarm bells were rung when Democrats held the majority in 2019, including an assignment to the bipartisan Select Committee on Modernization of Congress which passed 97 recommendations within four years to streamline Congress efficiency. The initiative included potential plans for legislators to list possible successors. If the legislator was unable to serve, the state governor could then appoint a replacement from the list to hold the post until the next elections.
Resistance and Reality
Despite these proposals, attempts to amend the House’s vacancy rules have historically met with heavy resistance and outrage, even in times of potential disaster, and been labeled as anti-democratic. Rep. Lofgren admits that without a unanimous agreement, procuring the necessary two-thirds vote to make the change is implausible.
Up to the present, gaining traction for the issue remains the greatest obstacle. However, as political tides shift and the average age of Congress officials creep up, the matter of what happens when an aging or ill representative becomes unable to serve will continue to be a topic of national interest.