Key Takeaways:
– US President Biden has pardoned or commuted sentences for about 1,500 people, among them Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, leader of the Islamist group which led the overthrow of Syria’s Government.
– Syrian leader al-Julani’s acceptance as a statesman shows that terrorists can turn into statesmen by taking over a state.
– The US’ decision to remove the bounty on al-Sharaa reflects its decreased influence in the Middle East.
– Israel’s destruction of the Syrian Army’s material and much of Assad’s chemical weapons stockpile provided a marginal safety margin.
– The growing influence of Sunnite Muslim Brotherhood-run Turkey in place of Iran in Syria could spell trouble for Israel and the West in the long run.
– Turkish President Erdogan’s vision for reconstituting the Ottoman Empire could lead to conflict with Jerusalem, regardless of who leads the Syrian government.
Changes in Syria’s Government and the West’s Response
During the last month of his tenure, outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden pardoned or commuted sentences for approximately 1,500 individuals. Notably, his clemency has significantly impacted Syria’s political landscape, especially relating to the leader of the Islamist group responsible for the overthrow of the Assad regime.
Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, leads the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or HTS group. Following the U.S.’s first diplomatic visit to Syria in more than a decade, Biden announced that the United States would no longer pursue a $10 million terrorism bounty on al-Sharaa. This came as transformative news for Syria.
Al-Sharaa: From Militant Leader to Statesman
According to Seth Frantzman, an expert on Syrian affairs, once al-Julani took over Damascus, he was no longer just the leader of a militant group. His interactions with Turkish and EU diplomats altered his image. The decision to drop the bounty is viewed as an incentive for him and the HTS to foster a shift from their former associations with al-Qaida and engage more moderately with the West.
However, allowing a former terrorist to transition into a statesman may set a dangerous precedent. Lt. Col. (res.) Sarit Zehavi, founder and president of the Alma Research and Education Center, believes that this development offers a negative lesson for terrorists. His rehabilitation suggests that achieving legitimacy only requires them to take control of a state.
Israel’s Role and the Rising Influence of Sunnite Muslim Brotherhood-Run Turkey
Israel played a critical role by wiping out the Syrian Army’s material and much of Assad’s chemical weapons stockpile. This tactical move prevented the newly formed government led by al-Julani from gaining access to potentially lethal weaponry. However, the political vacuum left by Shia Iran is quickly being filled by Sunni Muslim Brotherhood-run Turkey, a development that could impact Israel and the West negatively.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made no secret of his aspirations to reestablish the Ottoman Empire, even openly advocating for the conquest of Jerusalem. Despite his country’s continuous transition from a secular to a religious state during his presidency, Erdogan’s ambitions may lead to a conflict with Jerusalem, irrespective of Damascus’s leadership.
The Future of Syrian Politics and its International Impact
These developments shine a light on Syria’s rapidly evolving political landscape. The West’s acceptance of a former terrorist as a statesman underscores its diminishing influence in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the intricate interplay of regional power dynamics, with the rising influence of Turkey and the crucial role of Israel, will carry significant implications moving forward.