Key Takeaways:
– Gov. Ron DeSantis’s selection for Marco Rubio’s empty Senate seat could impact the Republican majority in the House.
– Concerns arise over potential hindrances to Trump’s legislative agenda passing through Congress.
– House Speaker Mike Johnson is aiming not to lose more than two votes on any bill to push Trump’s agenda.
– Florida Reps. Cat Cammack and Cory Mills, both Trump allies, are seen as safe Republican choices.
– Regardless of DeSantis’s pick, Mills has shown interest in running for the Senate in 2026.
Narrow Majority at Stake
Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida is in the spotlight as his choice of Senate candidate could shift the delicate balance in the Republican-led House of Representatives. This comes in the wake of Senator Marco Rubio’s departure to his potential post as the secretary of state.
Under President-elect Donald Trump, the House’s Republican majority has sawn thin, following the appointment of Representatives Elise Stefanik from New York and Michael Waltz from Florida to his administration. Thus, DeSantis’s decision holds considerable gravity. There’s an implicit concern that an unwise pick could hinder the progress of Trump’s legislative agenda.
Race for Rubio’s Seat
Florida Reps. Cat Cammack and Cory Mills, known as strong Trump allies, are currently being seen as strong contenders for Rubio’s vacant Senate seat. These two representatives come from red districts, marking themselves as safe Republican choices to fill Rubio’s shoes.
However, House Speaker Mike Johnson from Louisiana is walking a delicate line of not losing more than two votes on any single bill. Johnson’s aim to smoothly advance Trump’s agenda could face hurdles if either Cammack or Mills are plucked from the House. This situation has caused many in the GOP to express concerns about potential fallout for Johnson and Trump’s agenda.
A Matter of Balance
A senior GOP official noted that House margins could switch from 217-215 to 216-215. This means House Republicans will need unanimous support to pass any measure; if not, the bill will likely fail. This highlights the precarious situation that Republicans may face if DeSantis makes an unexpected choice.
Interest Amid Investigation
Even though Mills is on DeSantis’s radar, there are some complications. He has indicated his interest to run for Senate in 2026, but his path includes a bump. Recently, the House Ethics Committee initiated an investigation into some unspecified allegations against him.
More Players in the Field
Exceptions to DeSantis’s potential picks don’t stop at Cammack and Mills. Other Republican hopefuls for Rubio’s Senate seat include prominent figures such as Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody and DeSantis’s chief of staff James Uthmeier.
While the spotlight is currently on DeSantis and his Senate pick, the stakes are high for the entire GOP. Whether the Republicans can maintain their majority in the House and safeguard Trump’s legislative ambitions or experience a setback depends heavily on DeSantis’s forthcoming decision. The coming weeks will offer more clarity on how the dice will roll for the Republicans in this political chess game.