Key Takeaways:
• Trump’s classification of Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations could lead to potential risk to American tourists in Mexico.
• Possible retaliation from the cartels might involve attacking vacation hotspots and border communities.
• Trump’s approach resembles previous operations against terrorist groups, which saw costs in billions and led to the rise of ISIS due to civilian casualties.
• The threat does not seem imminent, but an outburst of violence may occur in case of leadership vacuum within the cartels.
Trump’s Executive Order Sparks Concern
Donald Trump, newly sworn into office, has stirred controversy with an executive order designating Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations. This aligns the cartels with the likes of al-Qaida and the Islamic State, which has sparked fears about potential retaliation against American tourists in Mexico.
Pentagon Mobilization Near the Border
Following this order, the Pentagon has stationed 1,500 active-duty troops at the border. Alarm bells are ringing amongst experts, who fear serious retaliation should special forces be sent into Mexico.
John P. Sullivan, a senior fellow at the Small Wars Journal-El Centro and ex-law enforcement officer in Los Angeles, expressed concerns. He said the consistent chatter about US military intervention in Mexico is a risky affair.
Potential Risks to American Tourists
The Mexican cartels, armed to the teeth, could strike back against American tourists in popular holiday locations like Cancún, where they have a firm hold. Furthermore, border communities could experience increased levels of violence as a result of this move.
Possible Outcomes
Lucas Webber, a senior threat intelligence analyst at Tech Against Terrorism, also posited a similar scenario. He said retaliation could also involve attacks on the newly deployed troops, diplomatic targets in Mexico, or even incursions within the United States itself.
Strong Comparisons to Past Tactics
Trump’s strategy of dealing with the cartels resembles how the US handled al-Qaida and the Islamic State. Renowned US units like Seal Team 6 were used with airstrikes under the U.S. Special Operations Command. These operations came with a hefty price tag in the billions and led to numerous civilian casualties, which eventually facilitated the rise of Isis.
Unpredictability of Cartel Leadership
While bringing down cartel leaders or ‘kingpins’ might be a political win, Sullivan warns that it carries heavy operational risks. The sudden removal of leaders often leads to infighting between cartel factions, which escalates violence and instability as they vie for control.
Uncharted Territory for Cartels
Though Mexican cartels have history of violence against Mexican law enforcement, judges, and even journalists, retaliation against US civilians isn’t common. However, Sullivan warns that cartels often resort to violent methods for asserting power and controlling state actions.
Conclusion
The alarm is real. The move to classify Mexican cartels as terrorist groups may escalate violence, with American tourists potentially at risk. While Sullivan doesn’t see an immediate threat, experts agree that it’s a situation requiring vigilant monitoring as it could transform rapidly based on decisions made by both the US and the cartels.