Key Takeaways:
– President Trump’s hold on foreign aid has left countries in dire need of support.
– As the US steps back, China is starting to fill the assistance gap, especially in strategic small nations.
– The shift in the US policy could have far-reaching consequences, allowing China to become an indispensable partner in global aid.
China Rises in Aid Game
Under President Donald Trump, the US decided to freeze nearly all its aid to foreign countries. As a result, countries like Cambodia, which are heavily dependent on US aid, had to halt critical projects. In this case, mine clearance operations were stopped. However, China stepped in with the necessary funds, effectively filling the void left by the US.
Similarly, in the Cook Islands, traditionally friendly with the US and New Zealand, the prime minister announces plans to sign a cooperation deal with Beijing. It appears that as the US pulls back, the Cook Islands and Cambodia are leaning towards China for support.
The US Lowers its Foreign Aid Flag
One main lever of influence that the US has effectively handed over is in the form of foreign aid. Trump, following advice from billionaire advisor Elon Musk, has put almost the entire workforce on leave at the US Agency for International Development (USAID). This decision signals an end to a key US strategy that has been in place for decades – exerting ‘soft power’. This is a nation’s ability to persuade others by being appealing or making themselves look attractive.
Instead, Trump has turned to ‘hard power’, wielding tariffs against friends and enemies alike, and equally threatening military force to get his way. This strategy has been used on multiple occasions, including a dispute with NATO ally Denmark over Greenland.
A New Player on the Field
The warning bells have sounded with China potentially becoming the leading player in the developing world in various sectors, including public health and security services. Multiple experts are worried about the increasing influence of the People’s Republic of China. They suggest the time may come when we find ourselves taken aback by how China has positioned itself as the go-to partner in Latin America, Africa, and Asia.
US vs China in Foreign Aid
The US has for years been the top donor worldwide, giving $64 billion in 2023. While other Western countries have been doing more based on their economic sizes, they cannot replace the US in terms of monetary donation or their role in distributing aid around the world.
China’s way of providing aid is somewhat unclear. As per AidData, a research group, China has provided $1.34 trillion in 20 years. However, the majority of this assistance comes in the form of loans, not grants, unlike Western countries.
Potential Consequences of the Shift
With this move, the US could struggle to quash perceptions of it being an unreliable partner in global aid. This situation presents China with an opportunity to appear as the more dependable alternative without having to do anything major.
There is also a significant concern that the scaling back of US aid may create a vacuum in conflict-related funding. Many experts worry that while China could step in to create infrastructure, it may not be as ready to deal with governance issues.
A Different Kind of Soft Power?
It’s too early to say exactly what impact Trump’s aid freeze will have globally. The freeze is officially only a 90-day review, with some emergency aid waivers still in place. But its effects are already felt in places ranging from Uganda’s shutting down schools to threatened flood relief shelters in South Sudan.
Simultaneously, Trump seems to integrate a new form of ‘soft power,’ invigorating leaders who mirror his political style. Such leaders happily follow his direction, indicating a new kind of soft power is emerging. As such, it’s becoming crucial to consider multiple visions of America’s international role today.
As we watch the aid scene unfold, it’s clear that the US’ move to scale back on foreign aid is poised to redraw the geopolitical landscape. This shift may allow China a chance to dominate as the new partner of choice for global aid.