Key Takeaways:
- Donald Trump claimed he could quickly end the Ukraine war if reelected, relying on his deal-making skills and relationship with Vladimir Putin.
- Trump’s team pressed Ukraine and Russia to negotiate, but both sides refuse to back down.
- Europe has a major stake in the war, and the U.S. must stay involved to protect democracy and stability.
- To end the war, Russia needs to feel the cost of continuing the conflict, and the U.S. and NATO must keep supporting Ukraine.
Trump’s Optimism Meets Reality
Donald Trump’s plan to end the Ukraine war quickly if he becomes president again has hit a wall. Trump believed his deal-making skills and friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin could resolve the conflict. But the reality is much tougher.
Trump’s team pushed hard for Ukraine and Russia to negotiate. They even scolded Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly, accusing him of not being serious about peace talks. However, both Ukraine and Russia are unwilling to give up.
For Ukraine, the war is about survival. Russia still controls about 20% of Ukrainian land, and the suffering of civilians and destruction of infrastructure cannot be ignored. Ukraine sees the war as a fight for its sovereignty and future.
On the other side, Putin believes the war is existential for Russia. He views Ukraine as part of Russia’s history and destiny, influenced by ideas from his favorite philosopher, Aleksandr Dugin. Putin refuses to accept Ukraine as a separate, independent nation.
Europe’s Stake in the War
The Ukraine war isn’t just about Ukraine and Russia. All of Europe has a lot to lose. The U.S. and NATO have supported Ukraine with weapons, intelligence, and strong diplomacy. This support has surprised both Putin and many Europeans.
During Trump’s first term, he often criticized NATO, making some worry he might reduce U.S. support for Europe. However, the reality is that the U.S. and Europe need each other. If Europe falls into a new era of great power competition and war, it will lose its security and progress. Europeans could face nightmares like those of the 20th century’s two world wars.
Why U.S. Leadership Matters
The U.S. plays a crucial role in Europe’s security. Without American leadership, democratic values and stability in Europe might disappear. Russia’s attempt to change Europe’s borders by force is unacceptable, especially when led by an autocrat like Putin.
The war in Ukraine won’t end unless Russia realizes that continuing the fight isn’t in its best interest. The U.S. and NATO must keep supporting Ukraine while increasing pressure on Russia.
How to End the War
Pressure Russia: The U.S. and NATO should make Russia feel isolated and economically weak. More sanctions, including targeting countries that buy Russian oil and gas, could help.
Unconventional Warfare: NATO could use creative strategies, like those used in World War II, to undermine Russia’s efforts without escalating the war.
Europe’s Role: While Europe can help with peacekeeping and rebuilding Ukraine after the war, it can’t replace the military and intelligence support needed now.
U.S. Focus on Europe: Even as the U.S. focuses on competition with China, it can’t abandon Ukraine. A loss in Ukraine would send a weak message to China and other allies.
The Bottom Line
The war in Ukraine is a tough reality. The U.S. and NATO must stay strong and committed. Diplomatic efforts are important, but they can’t come at the cost of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Weakness only invites more aggression.
The U.S. and Europe must stand firm to protect democracy and stability. The stakes are high, but giving up isn’t an option.