Key Takeaways:
- Federal surveys once tracked transgender identity but now they will not.
- New data shows 2.1 million adults and 724,000 teens identify as transgender.
- Young adults ages 18 to 24 showed the biggest rise.
- Losing federal surveys means a long pause before new data appears.
- Communities and policymakers need these numbers to protect rights and guide choices.
Understanding the Transgender Population
Researchers have found it hard to count the transgender population in the US. However, new federal surveys offered the best data since 2014. In 2025, experts estimate 2.1 million US adults and 724,000 youths identify as transgender. Yet the exact size of the transgender population could soon be unknown.
Why Counting the Transgender Population Matters
Accurate counts guide laws. They also shape school rules and health care plans. Policymakers use these figures to craft protections. For instance, bathroom access rules can rise or fall based on data. Judges refer to these estimates in major court cases. Media outlets rely on clear facts to report fairly. Teachers and principals need to know who their students are. Health clinics must plan for gender-affirming care. If they lack data, they may miss needed funds or staff. Researchers use figures to point out service gaps. Community groups find support when they know their population size. In addition, the transgender population often faces higher rates of violence. Recording accurate numbers helps direct funding to reduce harm and support safety.
How Researchers Count the Transgender Population
Since 2014, CDC surveys have asked about gender identity. The Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System brings national data. The Youth Risk Behavior Survey covers teens in high school. Researchers also use crime and health surveys for numbers. For example, the National Crime Victimization Survey added gender choices in 2016. That step improved our view of transgender experiences in crime. Yet some states have no gender identity data. To fix gaps, they apply a method called multilevel regression. Then they use poststratification to refine estimates. This technique blends survey answers with population data. It helps predict numbers in areas without direct questions. Still, estimates carry uncertainty in some regions or groups. Surveys cover more than 200,000 adults each year. In total, teens number around 15,000 per cycle. These large samples allow for solid state and national estimates. However, changes in survey questions can cause breaks in trends. This process yields the latest view of the transgender population size.
Trends Over Time
One clear trend is age differences. Young adults now report higher rates than older groups. In 2014, only 0.7% of adults aged 18 to 24 identified as transgender. By 2023, that share rose to 2.7%. This jump equals over 600,000 more young people. Yet the overall share among adults has stayed steady. Researchers see no evidence of a sudden wave of new identities. Instead, acceptance and openness likely explain the rise. Young people feel safer sharing their truth on surveys. Older adults may underreport due to past stigma. In fact, survey data shows older groups skip gender identity questions more. Over time, experts expect age gaps to shrink. As today’s youth age, they will likely keep reporting. Thus, the transgender population may grow more evenly across ages.
What Happens If Data Disappears
In 2025, the Trump administration ordered surveys to drop gender identity questions. As a result, federal data on the transgender population will vanish. Only a basic male or female question will remain. Researchers say this move will halt updates for at least a decade. Without new data, we cannot track changes in size or location. We will lose state-level insights on where people live. Policymakers will lack evidence to support nondiscrimination rules. Health experts may miss shifts in care needs. Community leaders will fly blind on new challenges. Some private surveys may try to fill the gap. Yet none reach the scale of CDC data. Therefore, a long freeze on official numbers looms. If a new administration restores questions by 2029, surveys need three years of data. That means new estimates might not appear until the mid-2030s. In the meantime, the real transgender population will keep living and working unseen in the stats.
Looking Ahead
Researchers hope federal surveys will return gender identity questions in 2029. Then data collection can resume. Experts will need at least three years of fresh surveys. Only then can they update estimates on the transgender population. Meanwhile, they will seek private and state surveys. Some nonprofit groups may share small datasets. Yet these sources lack national reach. Technology may help with anonymized surveys online. Still, nothing matches the power of federal surveys. Advocates push for policy changes to restore these questions sooner. They argue that every person counts and deserves recognition. Parents, teachers, and health providers need timely data. Until then, research will rely on old numbers. At last, the next decade may hold new insights. The transgender population will remain real, even if data fades. Communities must keep telling their stories to stay visible.
In the end, data on the transgender population guides policy, schools, and care. Losing surveys means we lose a key tool. Yet the population will keep growing and showing its needs. We must restore questions and track all Americans fairly.
FAQs
How many people identify as transgender in the US?
Latest estimates show 2.1 million adults and 724,000 teens.
Why did federal surveys stop asking about transgender identity?
The Trump administration decided to remove gender identity questions in 2025. Surveys now only offer male or female options.
Can state or private surveys fill the data gap?
Some can offer small snapshots, but they cannot match the coverage of federal surveys. Gaps at the state level will remain.
When will new data on the transgender population appear?
If questions return in 2029, experts expect fresh estimates by the mid-2030s after three years of data.