Key Takeaways:

• Republicans in Texas’ 28th District lost a key attack point when President Trump granted the Trump pardon to Rep. Henry Cuellar.
• GOP leaders had counted on Cuellar’s corruption charges to boost their midterm chances.
• Local Republican chairs say they feel confused, disappointed, and concerned.
• Some see a silver lining: the pardon might drive Cuellar’s own party to turn against him.
• Republicans are now uniting behind Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina for the 2026 race.

How the Trump pardon Changed the Race

President Trump surprised many by issuing the Trump pardon to Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar. Before the pardon, Cuellar faced a dozen federal charges for alleged bribery, money laundering, and conspiracy. Republicans had hoped these charges would weaken him in the midterms. However, the pardon wiped away Cuellar’s legal troubles, leaving GOP strategists scrambling for a new plan.

Local Republicans had urged the party to push hard against Cuellar. After all, the Texas Legislature redrew District 28 to favor GOP voters. They added parts of Hidalgo County and dropped San Antonio suburbs. Under the new lines, Trump would have won the district by ten points instead of seven. Yet thanks to the Trump pardon, the strongest critique against Cuellar no longer applies.

Local GOP Leaders React to the Trump pardon

Many local chairs felt blindsided. Jennifer Thatcher, chairwoman in Zapata County, said the move undercut the GOP’s strategy. She expected the court case to be their main talking point against Cuellar. Instead, the Trump pardon removed it.

Mary Wilson, chair of Duval County’s Republicans, admitted she had never been so disappointed in Trump. She did not understand why he would pardon Cuellar when it might harm GOP chances. Meanwhile, Susan Storey Rubio from La Salle County said she actually thought justice would be served. Now she fears it will energize Democrats and confuse swing voters.

Yet not all voices are negative. In Webb County, Reynaldo Montemayor Jr. first felt let down by the pardon. Over time, he decided to trust Trump’s decision. He speculated that labeling Cuellar as a Trump favorite could backfire on Cuellar among Democrats. “It could play out in our favor,” he said. “Some Democrats hate Trump so much they might hate whoever he thumbs his nose at.”

What Could Happen Next

The Cook Political Report already shifted the race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat” after the Trump pardon. National Republicans remain on alert. The National Republican Congressional Committee had listed Cuellar’s seat among top pickup targets. Now they must rethink their pitch without the legal troubles in play.

Looking ahead, Democrats still face their own primary. Cuellar competes against Andrew Vantine and Ricardo Villarreal. Without legal baggage, Cuellar can focus on his long record in Congress. He even regained his powerful role on the Homeland Security appropriations subcommittee. He claims the pardon gives him “a clean slate” to work for South Texas.

Republicans are gearing up too. Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina announced his run well before the pardon. He insists his campaign is about South Texas, not just Cuellar’s legal issues. Yet Tijerina must now navigate a tricky path. He needs to respect Trump’s pardon while reminding voters of past allegations. That balancing act will define his strategy in the months ahead.

Candidate Spotlight: Tano Tijerina and Henry Cuellar

Tano Tijerina

• Former Democrat who switched parties last year.
• Focuses on local issues like water, border security, and jobs.
• Emphasizes honesty and common sense for South Texans.

Henry Cuellar

• Veteran congressman seeking his 12th term.
• Known as a conservative Democrat on many issues.
• Relief over the Trump pardon allowed him to reclaim committee power.

Republicans hope Tijerina’s local ties and fresh message will energize voters. Meanwhile, Cuellar counts on his long service and the Trump pardon to reassure supporters.

Strategies and Challenges for Republicans

First, they must rebuild a message without the indictment. They could highlight Cuellar’s ties to Washington special interests. They might point to his more conservative voting record to argue he is out of step with progressives. At the same time, they risk alienating moderate voters by attacking someone who has now been forgiven by Trump.

Second, they need voter turnout. Local chairs stress that hard work will decide the outcome. As Jorge Tovar, vice chair in Webb County, said, “We need to always work hard. Always go out there and get the vote out.” In a closely drawn district, door-knocking, phone banks, and local events will matter more than ever.

Third, they must deal with mixed signals from Trump. His pardon surprised many state leaders who had pushed redistricting and other measures to limit Cuellar. Some wonder if Trump expected Cuellar to switch parties in return. Others think Trump simply felt the charges were unfair. Regardless, Republicans now face a split narrative: was the pardon smart political theater or a strategic misstep?

The Road Ahead for Both Parties

Democrats

• Rally around Cuellar’s experience and the fresh start from the pardon.
• Watch the primary challengers for any chance to unseat him.
• Highlight local investments and federal support Cuellar brought to the district.

Republicans

• Stick with Tijerina as their standard-bearer.
• Refocus on issues like border security, economy, and water resources.
• Use arguments about local values versus national party politics.

Both sides will need strong ground games. They must win over swing voters in areas added by redistricting. They should also energize their base in Webb and Hidalgo counties. In this battleground district, every vote counts.

FAQs

How did the Trump pardon affect Henry Cuellar’s legal case?

The Trump pardon erased federal charges against Cuellar, which had accused him of corruption, bribery, and money laundering. He now faces no trial and has reclaimed his committee role.

Why are local Republicans upset by the Trump pardon?

Republicans planned to use Cuellar’s legal troubles as a main argument to unseat him. The pardon removed that advantage and left them searching for a new strategy.

Could the Trump pardon help Republicans in any way?

Some GOP leaders think the pardon might alienate Cuellar from his Democratic base, as he accepted clemency from a top GOP figure. They hope that “Trump derangement syndrome” could work in their favor.

Who is Tano Tijerina and why does he matter?

Tano Tijerina is Webb County’s judge and a former Democrat who switched to the GOP. National Republicans view him as the best chance to flip District 28 in 2026.