Key Takeaways

• US forces captured Nicolás Maduro and struck Caracas and other cities.
• Diosdado Cabello leads Venezuela’s security forces and militia groups.
• President Trump aims to import 30–50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil.
• Cabello could block oil shipments and challenge Washington’s control.
• Trump quietly backs Delcy Rodríguez to help stabilize post-Maduro rule.

Diosdado Cabello’s Role as a Wild Card

After Venezuela’s president fell into US hands, a fierce power struggle erupted. In fact, Diosdado Cabello holds huge sway. He acts as the de facto boss of the country’s security forces and brutal militia groups. Therefore, he can disrupt any foreign-backed plan in Caracas. Furthermore, his deep ties to military leaders give him boots on the ground. As a result, Cabello looks like the most powerful obstacle to Washington’s takeover.

Cabello earned his reputation by running key security operations. Over time, he built a network of armed groups that answer only to him. Consequently, even if Maduro stays out of the picture, Cabello still runs the show. Meanwhile, Trump’s team must figure out how to deal with this wild card. Otherwise, any deal on oil or governance might collapse.

Trump’s Plan to Seize Venezuelan Oil

President Trump announced he would bring in 30 to 50 million barrels of “high quality, sanctioned oil” from Venezuela. He vowed to sell it at market price and then direct the profits. According to his statements, he will use the money to help both Venezuelans and Americans. However, this plan depends on smooth access to oil fields and ports. In other words, Washington needs local approval.

Since Maduro is gone, Trump thinks he has a clear path. Yet he faces a deeply loyal security network led by Diosdado Cabello. Those forces guard pipelines, refineries, and key export terminals. Thus, seizing oil without Cabello’s consent seems unlikely. Moreover, locals fear foreign troops or privateers could seize their resources. As a result, the takeover plan must address their concerns.

Potential Clash with Diosdado Cabello

The wild card in all of this is Cabello himself. He stands to lose power, income, and influence if the US controls Venezuela’s oil. Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, an analyst at Aurora Macro Strategies, warns that Cabello has “a great deal to lose.” In fact, he may resist through force or by supporting new political rivals.

If Washington tries to remove him, Cabello could order militias to attack foreign convoys. He may also rally civilians who feel loyalty to the Bolivarian revolution. Meanwhile, chaotic violence could wreck oil infrastructure. Therefore, Trump’s team must decide whether to negotiate with Cabello or sideline him. Either choice carries big risks.

Trump’s Secret Backing and Future Moves

Behind closed doors, Trump has been weighing options for Venezuela’s leadership. Classified CIA intelligence identified three figures who could keep order: Diosdado Cabello, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino. Surprisingly, Trump appears to favor Rodríguez over the Nobel nominee María Corina Machado.

By supporting Rodríguez, Trump hopes to split the hardliners from Cabello. Alternatively, he might court Cabello directly. Yet any deal could expose him to accusations of backing a brutal militia leader. As Juan Cruz, a former White House Latin America expert, noted, Trump sees the usual opposition as “losers” who failed to govern. So instead of trusting them, he turns to backroom picks.

In doing so, Trump risks alienating democratic groups and human rights advocates. Nevertheless, he calculates that Rodríguez can keep the oil flowing while sidelining Cabello. At the same time, he must ensure Cabello does not spark an armed uprising against US interests.

Why Transition Talks Matter

So far, US forces have limited their actions to key strikes and Maduro’s capture. However, long-term control requires building a stable government. Consequently, transition talks must include major power brokers. Above all, Cabello holds one of the most critical cards.

On one hand, the US could offer Cabello amnesty or roles in a new security council. In return, he would allow oil exports under new management. On the other hand, if talks collapse, Washington must prepare for sabotage. Thus, oil tankers, pipelines, and refineries could face attacks. That scenario would stall Trump’s plan and raise costs for US companies.

Economic Stakes of the Oil Plan

Venezuela sits on one of the world’s largest oil reserves. For the Trump administration, capturing even 30 million barrels could ease domestic supply pressures. Therefore, oil executives backed the plan from the start. They argue that US companies stand ready to relaunch operations and modernize aging fields.

Yet rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry demands security and legal certainty. In turn, that means powerful figures must back the new order. Sadly, Diosdado Cabello’s exit seems unlikely without concessions. Should the US try to freeze him out, investors may balk at pouring billions into unstable assets.

What Comes Next

In the coming days, the Trump administration must map out a clear strategy. First, they will decide if they will negotiate with Diosdado Cabello or confront him. Next, they must choose a transitional leader. If Delcy Rodríguez takes charge, Cabello might stay loyal—or turn rogue. Likewise, sidelining both could spark a militia insurgency.

For now, US troops and advisors will likely secure oil facilities and key transport routes. They will also hold talks with local governors and military officers. Meanwhile, Cabello’s allies could test Washington’s resolve. If they attack, the US might deploy more forces, further inflaming tensions.

Ultimately, controlling Venezuela’s oil means controlling its most powerful men. Unless Trump finds a way to neutralize or partner with Diosdado Cabello, his takeover plan may never reach full throttle. Therefore, the wild card remains the biggest threat to America’s bold new chapter in Venezuela.

Frequently Asked Questions

Could Diosdado Cabello really stop US oil imports?

Yes. He commands security forces and militias that guard pipelines and ports. Without his backing, oil shipments may face blockades or attacks.

Why is Trump backing Delcy Rodríguez?

Classified US intelligence names Rodríguez as someone who can keep stability. Trump thinks she can manage the country while sidelining weak opposition leaders.

What happens if talks with Cabello fail?

If negotiations collapse, militia attacks could damage oil infrastructure. In turn, that could stall exports and force the US to withdraw or escalate its military presence.

How many barrels of oil does Trump expect from Venezuela?

Trump plans to import between 30 and 50 million barrels of high-quality Venezuelan oil to help both US and Venezuelan economies.