Key Takeaways

• Diosdado Cabello controls Venezuela’s militias and security forces.
• He rejects U.S. demands and vows to keep Maduro’s movement alive.
• The Trump oil plan in Venezuela may falter if Cabello resists.
• U.S. officials warned Cabello to cooperate or face consequences.
• Venezuela’s loyalist forces remain a major hurdle for any takeover.

Why Diosdado Cabello Holds Military Power

Venezuela’s interior minister, Diosdado Cabello, leads its militias. He also coordinates with the national guard. As a result, he wields real power. Moreover, he shapes security policy nationwide. Therefore, any plan to seize oil assets faces his direct challenge.

Cabello rose through the ranks alongside Hugo Chávez. Next, he helped build the Bolivarian revolution’s armed wing. Consequently, he earned respect and fear among fighting forces. Meanwhile, his public speeches remind followers of their duty. Thus, he keeps loyalty high in key units. Finally, he stands as a symbol of resistance to outside pressure.

Cabello’s Rejection of U.S. Demands

Cabello publicly defies U.S. calls for him to step aside. He vows that Venezuela’s government will endure any plot. Moreover, he promises Nicolás Maduro’s return after he faces “capture.” As a result, his words rally supporters. Furthermore, they warn would-be challengers against taking fast action.

However, Washington views Cabello as a troublemaker. U.S. officials privately warned he must cooperate. Otherwise, he could become a target of sanctions or more direct actions. Yet Cabello argues he serves national interests. Consequently, he taps into nationalist sentiment across the country. This stance complicates the Trump administration’s timeline for change.

How Trump’s Plan Faces Challenges

The core of President Trump’s strategy rests on controlling oil fields. He hopes to use Venezuela’s reserves to pressure Maduro’s government. Yet Diosdado Cabello’s security network stands in the way. His militias guard key installations in the Orinoco Belt. They also patrol pipelines near the coast. As a result, any U.S. move risks violent pushback.

Furthermore, Cabello enjoys support among political elites. They see him as a power broker after Maduro. Thus, sidelining him could spark a split in the ruling party. In turn, this split might trigger an internal conflict. Consequently, the oil plan could turn into a wider war. That would further harm Venezuela’s economy and civilian life.

In addition, the loyalty of troops under Cabello remains firm. He rewards commanders with funds and influence. In contrast, U.S. offers of amnesty might seem weak. Moreover, Trump’s focus on oil ignores deeper political divides. Indeed, critics say a plan built on resources alone lacks local backing.

Political Transition and Oil Control

Beyond oil, Trump aims for a quick political handover. He hopes capturing assets will force Maduro to resign. Yet Cabello insists the revolution cannot end. He portrays critics as foreign agents. This narrative strengthens his grip on state media. Thus, voters in pro-government areas see him as a hero.

Meanwhile, central bank reserves still flow through channels Cabello controls. These funds keep security forces loyal. In fact, he leverages cash to pay militias regularly. By doing so, he ensures they reject any U.S. offer. As a result, international backers of Trump’s plan worry about a power vacuum.

Moreover, cabinet members tied to Cabello could veto key decisions. They include oil ministry officials and bond trustees. If these officials refuse orders, U.S. negotiators lose leverage. Consequently, even a captured refinery could sit idle. That outcome would undermine the strategy’s economic logic.

Possible Outcomes and Next Steps

One path forward involves negotiating with Cabello directly. Trump could offer him an official role in any transition. However, critics say this rewards bad behavior. Instead, they want tougher sanctions and asset freezes targeting his inner circle. Such moves might cut off his militia funding. Yet they could also push him closer to hard-liners.

Alternatively, boosting support for rival politicians could divide pro-Maduro forces. If some generals switch sides, Cabello’s network would weaken. In that scenario, U.S. teams might escort them to key oil sites. However, that plan rests on uncertain loyalty shifts. Meanwhile, Cabello may preempt any deals with surprise operations.

Finally, public protests could change the balance. Though most demonstrations target Maduro, Cabello could feel pressure too. If civilians block access to oil facilities, his militias might hesitate to fire. In turn, leaders would look for an exit strategy. Yet so far, protests have not reached the intensity needed to confront armed groups.

The enduring power of Diosdado Cabello shows how deeply security forces shape Venezuela’s fate. As long as he commands loyalties, any attempt to seize oil will face armed resistance. Therefore, Trump’s plan must account for this “wild card” or risk a stalled effort and more bloodshed.

FAQs

Who is Diosdado Cabello and why does he matter?

Diosdado Cabello is Venezuela’s interior minister and head of its security forces. He oversees key militias and guards the country’s oil infrastructure. His support keeps Maduro’s government in power.

How does Cabello block the U.S. from seizing oil?

He deploys militias around oil fields and pipelines. Additionally, he controls funds that pay security forces. This network deters any foreign team from taking physical control.

What could make Cabello change sides?

Extreme pressure on his financial network or division among top commanders might force a shift. Large-scale protests that threaten armed clashes could also push him to negotiate.

Could negotiating with Cabello help U.S. goals?

Possibly, but it risks legitimizing a leader accused of human rights abuses. Tougher sanctions remain an alternative, yet they may harden his resolve instead of softening it.