Key Takeaways:
– Election-tracking agency, Decision Desk HQ, emerged as first to call the 2020 presidential race in Biden’s favor.
– The company focuses entirely on data, disregarding the race to be the first to decide the election’s outcome.
– Although Decision Desk only joined the election-calling industry in 2012, it gained national prominence due to its 2020 prediction.
– The organization is preparing for the 2024 election, emphasizing updated voting rules and legislature.
– Misinformation will be a challenge for news organizations. Decision Desk plans to ground its approach in real-time data from election officials.
– The 2024 outcome may take several days due to the likelihood of close voting margins.
Transforming Election Predictions Through Data Focus
In the tense aftermath of the 2020 election, a dedicated team at Decision Desk HQ steadfastly monitored the results, particularly those emanating from Pennsylvania, the deciding battleground state. Fueled by relentless resolve and countless cups of caffeine, these hardworking analysts dedicated themselves to attaining an accurate conclusion.
Decision Desk HQ’s President, Drew McCoy, reminisced about those crucial days, stating that sleep was a rare luxury as every eye stayed glued to the data. This fierce vigil paid off when Decision Desk HQ became the trailblazer, heralding Joe Biden’s presidential win at 8:50 a.m. on Friday, a significant 24 hours before the major TV networks.
Leapfrogging Into the National Limelight
This early call ushered Decision Desk HQ onto the national stage, marking a notable achievement for a firm that only started dabbling in election predictions in 2012. However, McCoy emphasizes that their priority was not about being the fastest to predict the result. Amid the unique challenges of the 2020 election year, he maintains that their focus has always been on the data and reaching the right conclusion.
Making Predictions Amid Unprecedented Circumstances
The 2020 election was unlike any other, with record numbers of mail-in ballots due to the pandemic. A palpable shift occurred in battleground Pennsylvania, where absentee ballots rolled in for days following election day. As President Trump’s early lead began diminishing, the Decision Desk HQ team concentrated on key Democratic strongholds, where Biden was gaining substantial votes, particularly in Philadelphia and Allegheny County.
Their unwavering commitment and meticulous calculations yielded conclusive results: Trump’s lead was going, and it wouldn’t return. According to McCoy, there was nothing unexpected about the last ballots. Calling it a “simple algebra problem,” he noted that Republican areas had fully reported.
Breaking the News in the Face of Hesitation
Despite Decision Desk and its media clients, Vox and Business Insider, announcing Biden’s win, other media outlets, haunted by past mistakes, opted to wait. The ghost of the 2000 Florida recount loomed large, causing media to delay their declarations. Emphasizing his organization’s resolve against the rush, McCoy insisted they prioritize accuracy over speed.
Preparing for the 2024 Election
The 2020 success heralded another challenge: preparing for the 2024 election under intensifying scrutiny. The team at Decision Desk HQ is focusing on the new rules and legislation passed since 2020. As per McCoy, understanding these changes is the key to achieving another accurate call.
Tackling Misinformation
Addressing the upcoming election also means bracing for the wave of false information that might overshadow the facts. McCoy stands by his team’s commitment to rely solely on real-time data from election officials, discrediting speculation and unverified reports from social media.
2024 Outcome Might Take Time
Despite improved technologies and reporting processes, predicting the 2024 outcome might take several days. Drawing on his 2020 experience, McCoy emphasizes the margin of error due to tight competition in battleground states. As Decision Desk HQ gears up for the high-stakes election, the principle remains the same: trust the data, ignore the noise, and make the call only when the math is transparent.