Key Takeaways:
– Some South Korean analysts see Trump’s re-election as an opportunity to revive the country’s nuclear arms program
– Trump’s statements during his term raised doubts about the U.S. commitment to its allies, increasing South Korea’s mistrust
– Fear of North Korea’s nuclear development has fueled the conversation around South Korea’s nuclear weaponry
– South Korea’s nuclear armament would require the country to withdraw from the international Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
Trump’s Presidency Fuels New Nuclear Debate
Following Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. presidential election, South Korean political analyst, Cheong Seong-chang, sparked a new debate over his country’s nuclear armament. Viewing Trump’s re-election as a silver lining, Cheong believes that this could be an opportunity for South Korea to produce its own nuclear weapons. This conversation represents a shift in South Korea’s reliance on the United States for protection, an arrangement made since the end of the Korean War in 1953.
Historic Ties and Changing Perceptions
In the 1970s, South Korea once operated a nuclear weapons program. However, it closed this endeavor after signing the international Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. In exchange, the U.S. pledged to use its nuclear arsenal to safeguard South Korea from attacks. Over the years, the U.S. criticism that its allies have not pulled their weight has led to doubt about America’s commitment to its allies—leading many like Cheong to believe in the necessity of nuclear arms for South Korea.
Under the Trump administration, the U.S. ordered the withdrawal of 12,000 troops in Germany, setting a precedential fear that similar actions could happen to South Korea. During his tenure, Trump criticized the cost of joint military exercises, even expressing a desire for the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea. His stance has given rise to mistrust of the U.S., particularly since South Korea has been a significant monetary contributor to the upkeep of U.S. troops within its borders.
Concerns About Regional Security
Driving the conversation towards nuclear armament is South Korea’s fear of North Korea’s nuclear prowess. North Korea’s growing ties with Russia and persistent defiance of international disarmament directives are topics of grave concern. A survey by a South Korean think tank showed a significant 66% of respondents supporting South Korea’s nuclear arms development if North Korea does not disarm.
Public, Political and International Impressions
Public opinion remains divided, with just over a third of South Korea’s “strategic elites,” such as academics and government officials, supporting nuclear weapons. But a significant proportion of opposition might sway if U.S. protection becomes more expensive or is entirely withdrawn. Notably, South Korea’s capacity to develop nuclear arms is largely undisputed, given its advanced civil nuclear infrastructure.
However, technical aspects aren’t the only challenge. Major political and public upheavals are expected concerning siting, testing, or storing such materials. Even more significantly, breaching the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty may attract international sanctions, sour relations with China, and potentially fuel a regional arms race.
Nonetheless, Cheong argues the need for a reassessment in the current unpredictable global scenario. With a considerably weakened nonproliferation regime among the U.S., China, and Russia, especially after the Ukraine war, the conversation for South Korea’s nuclear arms becomes even more prominent. The question begs – is South Korea’s nuclear armament an imminent reality or a far-fetched speculation? Only time will tell.