Key Takeaways:
– Some Joe Biden staffers hold Kamala Harris responsible for losing the 2024 election.
– Insiders question necessity of Biden’s mid-campaign dropout.
– Critics argue that Biden could have won against Trump.
– Bulwark’s Will Saletan takes issue with this narrative, based on poll data.
– Saletan believes Biden, not Harris, put Democrats at a disadvantage.
– Based on data, Harris inherited only 40% of committed voters from Biden.
An Elective Fallout
After the conclusion of the 2024 U.S. elections, anonymous sources within former President Joe Biden’s staff have blamed Vice President Kamala Harris for the loss. They hypothesize that the election might have taken a different turn if Biden hadn’t bowed out during the campaign. Some wonder if Biden likely could have defeated Trump, despite the problematic debate that occurred in June.
Data Makes A Different Case
However, The Bulwark’s Will Saletan holds a contrary opinion. He believes Biden, not Harris, was on the path to a likely loss based on the polling data. While some speculate Biden should have stayed in the race, Saletan debunks this belief. He urges those within Biden’s circle to abandon the notion that Biden could have succeeded where Harris couldn’t.
Election Data Tells The Story
The 2024 VoteCast data presents a clear image of the voter sentiment during the elections. It reveals that Biden, not Harris, was the main reason for the Democrats’ downfall. Contrary to contrasting allegations, Harris climbed up from the large deficit created by Biden’s campaign, but not quite far enough.
The data indicates that 70% of voters had already decided their preferences and among them, 59% sided with Trump and 40% with Harris. Given that Harris only assumed Biden’s position in July, her votes are essentially an inheritance from Biden’s support base.
This indicates a tough situation for Harris. She started her race with only 28% of the total electorate’s guaranteed support compared to Trump’s 41%. As Saletan points out, these figures paint a grim picture of Biden’s impact on the election.
Harris’s Steady Stride
In the light of these numbers, it’s surprising that Harris kept the contest as close as she did. While Harris managed to ascend from the seemingly insurmountable deficit, the damage sustained from Biden’s campaign was too immense to completely overcome.
Room for Regrets
Reflecting on Biden’s campaign, Saletan suggests that he might have sidestepped the 2024 race and allowed the younger generation from the Democrat camp to take the lead. He further questions whether Biden could have placed more emphasis on publicizing his accomplishments rather than gunning for new legislation.
However, Saletan asserts that Biden’s decision to leave the race in July wasn’t a mistake. The true mistake, according to him, was not making that decision sooner. Biden’s perceived progress in the early stages of an election isn’t necessarily indicative of a likely success.
To blame Harris for tanking the race, argues Saletan, overlooks the bigger issue the Democrats faced—starting the race with a significant handicap in the shape of a former president not quite attracting the same voter base anymore.
While it may be hard to accept for some, it becomes crucial to acknowledge, based on the 2024 election data, how Biden’s presence in the race impacted the final results. Analysts and strategists would do well to dissect these findings and strategize accordingly to avoid similar pitfalls in future elections. Politicians come and go, but the party’s ideology and vision should be resilient enough to shape its destiny.