Key Takeaways:
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s tense Oval Office meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump may have been a strategic success.
- Europe stepped up to support Ukraine after the meeting, committing billions to defense and military aid.
- Zelenskyy might have intentionally pushed for a failed meeting to shift Ukraine’s reliance from the U.S. to Europe.
- Russia’s weakening position and Europe’s growing military strength could change the game for Ukraine.
A Tense Meeting in the Oval Office
On February 28, 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with U.S. President Donald Trump in the Oval Office. The meeting was supposed to pave the way for a massive $500 billion minerals deal. Instead, it turned into a heated argument. Zelenskyy left the White House, hat-in-hand, while U.S. officials and analysts questioned his approach. Many believed he had alienated the U.S. and hurt Ukraine’s chances of getting security guarantees.
But what if this meeting wasn’t a failure? What if Zelenskyy had planned it this way all along?
Europe Steps Up After the U.S. Steps Back
In the days following the meeting, Europe showed surprising unity and strength. The UK, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, took charge of rallying support for Ukraine. The EU proposed an $840 billion defense package, and France even considered extending its nuclear shield to other European countries. Nations across Europe opened their military supplies and wallets to help Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the U.S. paused its military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. But this pause was short-lived. Aid and intelligence support resumed, and the U.S. even proposed a ceasefire agreement. This happened without Ukraine signing away its mineral wealth or apologizing, as some had feared.
Was Zelenskyy’s Meeting a Strategic Success?
The initial analysis of the meeting labeled it a failure. But looking closer, it’s clear Zelenskyy might have achieved exactly what he wanted. The meeting was a test of U.S. support, and the results were clear: the U.S. under Trump was unreliable.
Zelenskyy’s bold approach may have been designed to push Europe into taking a stronger role. And it worked. Europe’s response was swift and decisive, proving it could stand on its own without relying on the U.S.
The Case for Zelenskyy’s Success
This interpretation rests on three key points:
- Zelenskyy knew the U.S. was unreliable. Relations between Zelenskyy and Trump were strained even before the meeting. In 2019, the infamous phone call about Hunter Biden created tension. Trump’s 2024 campaign criticizing U.S. aid to Ukraine and his friendly rhetoric toward Russia made it clear where his priorities lay. After taking office, Trump cut foreign aid, including to Ukraine. Zelenskyy had every reason to doubt U.S. support.
- Europe is stronger than it seems. Many analysts underestimate Europe’s military potential. Just like the U.S. rapidly transformed its military before World War II, Europe has the capacity to do the same. Europe’s economy is strong, and it has already shown resilience in addressing energy challenges caused by the war. With unity and determination, Europe could become a powerful military force.
- Russia is weaker than it appears. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been costly. With an estimated 800,000 casualties so far, Russia’s losses are already higher than those suffered during its ten-year war in Afghanistan. A prolonged conflict could destabilize Putin’s regime, especially if economic and demographic challenges grow.
Historical Lessons and Modern Strategy
History shows that nations can rapidly strengthen their military capabilities. The U.S. transformed its army in just two years before entering World War II. Europe today has a strong foundation to build on, and its leaders are increasingly united in their support for Ukraine.
Similarly, Russia’s long-term prospects look bleak. The Soviet Union collapsed after its costly war in Afghanistan, and Russia’s current losses in Ukraine could have a similar impact. A prolonged war would strain Russia’s economy and population, making it harder for Putin to maintain power.
A Shift in Global Power Dynamics
Zelenskyy’s strategy may have been to create a dramatic moment that would force Europe to act. For decades, Europe relied on the U.S. for security, but Trump’s actions made it clear that this reliance was no longer wise. The failed meeting was the wake-up call Europe needed.
This shift reflects a broader change in global power dynamics. The U.S. is no longer the only dominant force, and Europe is stepping into a leadership role. This could signal the end of the Western Liberal-Democratic order and the rise of a new global power structure.
Conclusion: A New Era for Ukraine and Europe
While it’s unlikely Zelenskyy planned for the meeting to fail, the outcome has been a success for Ukraine. Europe’s response has been stronger than expected, and Russia’s weakening position gives Ukraine hope for the future.
The U.S. and the West must adapt to this new reality. The idea of the U.S. as the “indispensable nation” is fading, and a multipolar world is emerging. For Ukraine, this means diversifying its alliances and relying on a united Europe.
In the end, Zelenskyy’s bold strategy may prove to be a turning point in the war against Russia—and in the future of global geopolitics.