Key Takeaways:

• President Trump says tariffs bring in huge government revenue.
• Treasury Secretary credits large revenue gains to these tariffs.
• Conservative analysts call the claim flawed and unrealistic.
• The CBO estimate assumes tariffs stay constant, but they often change.
• Critics say you can’t predict revenue when tariff rates shift.

Tariffs Talk: What’s the Real Story?

President Trump has praised his tariffs as a big win for the U.S. economy. He says the country has “a lot of money coming in” and it’s coming in “in tremendous numbers.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed this point. He linked higher government revenue directly to the new tariffs. He even pointed to a report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). According to that report, these tariffs could cut the federal deficit by four trillion dollars over ten years.

However, two conservative voices are pushing back. Tim Miller and Jonathan V. Last discussed these claims on the Bulwark Takes podcast. They argued the rosy picture depends on a key impossibility. In reality, President Trump shifts his tariff rates almost every week. As a result, they say, you cannot lock in a long-term revenue forecast.

Analysts Highlight Flaws

According to Last, the biggest problem is simple. You cannot assume that a tariff rate set today will still be in place next month. He says, “Now this is crazy for all sorts of reasons. One of which is that Trump changes the tariffs like every nine days.” When the leader of the country keeps tweaking rates, long-term projections lose all reliability. Moreover, Miller added that the MAGA world has invested huge effort defending the idea that these measures pay for themselves.

Yet all this defense depends on a stubborn assumption. It presumes no new trade deals will alter or remove current tariffs. It also ignores the chances of retaliatory tariffs from other countries. For example, if China or the EU raises their own barriers, U.S. exporters may suffer. That outcome could erode jobs in key industries and reduce domestic revenue in other ways.

Tariffs and Budget Estimates

The CBO report has been a key talking point for the Trump administration. It suggests that over a decade, tariffs will bring in four trillion dollars more than the status quo. Bessent went even further. He said he expects that number could rise. In other words, they are betting on steady or rising tariff rates.

However, Last points out a critical detail. The report itself notes it assumes tariffs will stay exactly as they are today. That caveat is hidden deep in fine print, but it matters greatly. If any major trade agreement rolls back existing tariffs, the expected windfall falls apart. Therefore, any future deal could wipe out this projected revenue gain.

Why the Claims Fall Short

First, revenue from tariffs is effectively a tax on imports. When you tax imports, domestic consumers pay higher prices. Retailers and manufacturers may see their costs spike. In turn, they might pass these costs to customers or cut jobs. Furthermore, if other nations impose counter-tariffs, U.S. exporters feel the squeeze. Exports may drop, causing more harm than any temporary revenue gain.

Second, the assumption of stability is unrealistic. Trade policy is driven by negotiations, political pressure, and global events. A new deal with Mexico or Canada could erase some or all of the current levies. A sudden shift could leave a hole in the federal budget. Relying on unpredictable tariffs to fund long-term projects or cut debt is risky.

Third, trade wars tend to harm farmers, small businesses, and consumers more than large corporations. Farmers saw tariffs target their crops. They waited for promised government checks to cover their losses. Some small importers struggled with budget shocks as tariff rates jumped up. As a result, many faced layoffs, closures, or debt.

What This Means for You

If you run a small business that relies on imported parts, tariffs can drive up your costs. You must decide whether to raise prices or shrink profit margins. If you grow crops for export, you risk losing overseas buyers. Some farmers saw orders dry up and prices plunge under foreign retaliation. Even if the government sends relief checks, they often arrive late or fall short.

In everyday life, tariffs can mean higher prices on common goods. Think about clothing, electronics, or furniture. When tariffs rise, store shelves may shrink and prices go up. Some families tighten their budgets and delay buying big-ticket items. Others cut back in different areas to cover the difference.

Moreover, if tariffs do help the federal deficit, they do it by shifting burdens. They make Americans pay more at the cash register. That extra cost is called a tax, even if it’s not labeled one. So, while the government ledger may look better, household budgets may suffer.

Final Thoughts on Tariffs

President Trump’s enthusiasm for tariffs has shaped U.S. trade policy in dramatic ways. He argues these measures bring in abundant revenue and curb the deficit. Treasury Secretary Bessent and MAGA supporters stand behind that claim, citing CBO forecasts. Yet two respected conservative analysts, Tim Miller and Jonathan V. Last, challenge this view. They say you cannot rely on ever-changing tariff levels for long-term budgeting.

Furthermore, economists often warn that trade battles hurt the overall economy more than they help. Retaliation from other nations, higher consumer prices, and business uncertainty can outweigh short-term revenue gains. As a result, the promise of a four-trillion-dollar deficit cut may prove to be more fiction than fact.

Ultimately, the debate over tariffs highlights a key tension. Leaders want quick fixes for budget problems. However, complex global trade cannot be pinned down so easily. The ability to forecast tariff revenue depends on policy stability—and that hardly exists right now.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did President Trump say about tariffs and revenue?

He claimed that tariffs bring in large sums, boosting government revenue. He said the numbers are “tremendous.”

Why do some analysts reject this claim?

They argue that tariff rates change too often to support long-term projections. They say the CBO assumption relies on static rates.

How could changing tariffs affect consumers?

When import costs rise, retailers may charge more. Families pay higher prices for everyday goods.

Do tariffs really reduce the federal deficit?

They may cut the deficit if rates stay the same, but that stability is unlikely. Global deals and negotiations can reverse any gains.