The U.S. experienced an all-time high of over 2,300 heat-related fatalities in 2023, its highest count in 45 years, according to a recent report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). However, health experts warn that the actual number could be significantly higher.
Unmasking the Hidden Toll
Leading health experts and physicians, including Dr. John Balbus of the U.S. Department of Health’s Office of Climate Change and Health Equity, contend that the official figures significantly understate the severity of the situation. The actual numbers, they suggest, could be drastically worse.
“We can be confident that 2023 was the worst year since the documentation of reliable reports,” Dr. Balbus advised. Unreported deaths have exacerbated the accurate tracking of fatalities due to the heat, thereby revealing only a fraction of the true cost in human lives.
Heat Hotspots Highlighted
A predominant concentration of heat-related deaths occurred in five southern states ─ Arizona, Texas, Nevada, Florida, and Louisiana. These five accounted for a staggering 61% of the nation’s total heat-related deaths in the past half-decade.
This is a stark contrast with historical trends. From 1979 to 1999, these states cumulatively accounted for only 18% of the country’s heat-linked fatalities. This drastic increase underlines the tangible effects of climate change.
Further exacerbating the serious climate situation, the U.S. recorded more heatwaves in 2023 than in any year since the mid-1930s. Extreme weather records such as Phoenix’s 31 consecutive days of temperatures reaching or surpassing 110 degrees Fahrenheit highlight this worrying trend.
Examining Excess Death Studies
Death certificates routinely underestimate heat-linked fatalities, leading experts to propose that “excess death” studies could provide an accurate count. Excess death studies compare death rates during extreme weather conditions to typical averages, thereby providing a more precise appraisal of heat-related mortality.
For instance, one study conducted by Texas A&M University estimated that around 11,000 people succumbed to heat-related causes in the U.S. in 2023 ─ nearly five times the CDC’s official tally.
The Ground Reality
The majority of those dying due to extreme heat are individuals working outdoors or those who can’t afford to cool their homes, according to Andrew Dessler, who co-conducted the Texas A&M study.
Dr. Dessler warned, “This is a glimpse of the future. In two decades, we will view 2023 as relatively cool.” He cautioned that climate change poses an increasing threat and could push communities to the edge.
The Future Forecast
With Earth recently experiencing its warmest May on record, experts predict the situation will worsen. “The problem with climate change is if it hasn’t pushed you over the edge yet, just wait,” added Dr. Dessler.
Public health expert Peter Dynes posted on Twitter, “Deaths caused by heat in the U.S. and elsewhere are only heading up. Expect this trend to continue. The climate is venturing into the unknown expecting significant climatic events.”
Each year’s record temperatures signal the increasing vulnerability and looming threat posed by climate change. Each hot summer promises a grimmer future unless comprehensive, global solutions against the intensifying climate crisis materialize.