Key Takeaways:
– Real per capita disposable income growth was 24% under Trump; -4.4% under Biden.
– The S&P 500 was up 65% under Trump, 48% under Biden.
– Inflation, via the CPI, measured 7.7% under Trump, 19.9% under Biden.
– Gas prices were $2.41 under Trump; $3.37 under Biden.
– Housing costs rose 11.5% under Trump; 23% under Biden.
A Tale of Two Economies
President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, with Vice President Kamala Harris, each left their mark on the American economy. Despite shared obstacles like the COVID-19 pandemic, their strategies and accomplishments vary.
Economic Sentiment: Trump Vs. Biden
During Trump’s presidency, economic sentiment consistently hovered around 93%. Under Biden, it fell to under 81%. The COVID-19 pandemic certainly played a part, but many voters blame Biden for the current inflation, changed by 20% since he took office. These figures could potentially shape Biden’s economic legacy.
However, some independent economists suggest that real inflation under Biden-Harris might be as much as 25%. Even Vice President Harris, who is the Democrat nominee for president, agrees she wouldn’t approach things differently and plans to continue Biden’s policies.
Highlighting Positives
Both presidencies had shining aspects. Despite economic devastation from the pandemic towards the end of Trump’s term, job recovery took place under Biden-Harris. Trump’s presidency saw a real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.85%, which jumped to 3.24% under Biden-Harris. While Trump dealt with the loss of 2.7 million jobs due to the pandemic, Biden oversaw growth to 15.8 million jobs.
The Comparison: Real Numbers
Comparable figures tell another story: while Trump saw real disposable income rise 24%, it fell -4.4% under Biden. When it comes to the stock market, the S&P 500 increased 65% under Trump, compared to 48% under Biden.
Inflation tells a similar tale: it measured 7.7% under Trump but jumped to a hefty 19.9% under Biden. This increase also affected everyday Americans. Grocery prices rose 6.5% under Trump but sharply increased to 21% under Biden. The same happened with gas prices at $2.41 under Trump, climbing to $3.37 under Biden.
Housing was not exempted. The cost increased by 11.5% under Trump and a whopping 23% under Biden. Even mortgage rates, which were 3.9% under Trump, rose to 5.4% under Biden.
Pandemic Vs. Economy
When we remove the pandemic years from the GDP calculations, Trump’s rate was 2.82%, while Biden’s was 2.26%. Similarly, job creation under both presidents witnessed its ups and downs due to the pandemic. Under Trump, job losses were temporary, resulting from pandemic disruptions. Under Biden, job growth resulted from economic reopening.
Employment Rates and Inflation
Before COVID-19, the employment rate rose under Trump. It was 61.1% in February 2020, a record since the 2008 financial crisis. Under Biden, it has come close but has failed to regain the previous level, reaching the maximum of 60.4% in November 2021.
Inflation is another point to look at. Inflation-adjusted income growth was strong under both presidents. However, Trump’s reign saw more stability, which might put Democrats at a disadvantage.
Final Thoughts
Inflation has slightly receded under Biden. Yet, the increased cost of groceries, gas, and big-ticket items like houses and cars are still affecting voters. Biden’s green agenda, which led to a near 30% increase in energy prices compared to a 2.3% increase under Trump, also Echoes in voters’ minds.
In essence, both presidencies had their unique victories and challenges. Yet, it’s evident that factors like inflation and rising costs have majorly affected public sentiment, a factor that could impact future polls.