Key Takeaways:
– A second Trump term may push for greater federalism, reducing the impact of federal regulations on state actions.
– The Trump administration might encourage further use of State Innovation Waivers, providing more room for state marketplaces outside of the Affordable Care Act.
– Greater focus on reforms in federal Medicaid financing, including implementing caps and allowing more state flexibility, could be expected.
– A reinforcement of AI policy rooted in innovation and free speech could be on the horizon.
– The potential Trump administration might promote Loper-like regulations and stimulate increased decision-making at the state level.
– Reforms in renewable energy investments and electric vehicle incentives could be up for negotiation.
States Brace for Greater Autonomy
The presidential race is teetering on the edge, making it critical for us to expect and prepare for a possible second Trump term. Trump, both during his term and on his campaign trail, showed firm support for federalism and provided states a broader spectrum to enforce policies. His intention to trim federal regulations was evident in the first term, as he set forth executive orders to lessen regulatory costs. A second term is likely to follow a similar path.
Healthcare Policies: What to Expect
After strongly voicing criticism against the Affordable Care Act (ACA), Trump indicated his support for Medicare and Social Security. Consequently, a second term might see expansion in the use of State Innovation Waivers giving states some respite from ACA limitations. Greater flexibility for alternatives to marketplace plans, like short-term limited duration insurance and Association Health Plans, could also be on the cards.
Moreover, comprehensive reforms in federal Medicaid financing could be on the anvil, which includes setting caps on federal contributions. This could mean states get more control to improve access to healthcare services. Despite the court’s blockage of the policy during the first term, the administration may again encourage states to link Medicaid eligibility to work.
Artificial Intelligence and Infrastructure
Trump has always had a keen interest in artificial intelligence, leading him to issue executive orders in 2019 and 2020 to promote its use. This enthusiasm could seed a policy focused on innovation, free speech, and even a potential large-scale project similar to Manhattan’s on AI. Electric vehicle incentives, alongside other renewable energy investments, could be subject to reformation under a second Trump administration following the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.
Loper-like Regulatory Regimes
The Supreme Court’s decision in the Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo trial, eliminating judicial deference, is likely to encourage Trump’s administration to empower states with more Loper-like regulatory regimes. Utah is already moving along this path, creating laws requiring state agencies to identify federal regulations that impact them. This acts as a triggering point for testing broad federal laws and an enabling mechanism for states to exercise their power with the administration’s encouragement.
Balancing Federal Interference and State Autonomy
The potential Trump White House is expected to balance deregulation and federalism, striving to relieve states from costs linked to intrusive federal requirements while keeping businesses in check to prevent overburdening commerce. Trump administration alumni, now holding state and local government roles, may play a crucial role in managing these relationships.
As we prepare for the possibility of a second Trump presidency, it’s evident that substantial changes in the connection between Washington and states could be on the horizon. This could mean states and localities, like counties, gain more freedom in problem-solving and setting priorities. At the same time, the role of the federal government may shrink, focussing less on micro-managing localities and paying more attention to nationwide challenges.