Key Takeaways:
– Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrullah was assassinated, marking a significant shift for the organization.
– Israel has escalated its attacks on Hezbollah, causing great strain on the group.
– Hezbollah, however, remains resilient and continues to pose a staunch resistance against Israeli forces.
– The death of Nasrullah has revived calls for Hezbollah to surrender its weapons.
The End of an Era
Hassan Nasrullah, the significant leader of Hezbollah, met his end one month ago, creating a monumental shift in the dynamics of the Iran-backed Lebanese movement. This event has reignited the debates concerning the group’s massive arms reserve. Nasrullah’s influence spanned beyond his devoted Shiite Muslim followers in Lebanon, making him a critical figure in Iran’s resistance against both the United States and Israel. This resistance also encompasses various other armed groups in the Middle East, including Syria.
Aftershocks of Nasrullah’s Assassination
On September 27, Israel’s daunting airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburbs killed Nasrullah, thereby altering the trajectory of Hezbollah’s path. This attack came amidst a series of cross-border confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel that started in support of Palestine’s ally, Hamas, following the attack on October 7, 2023.
In the aftermath of Nasrullah’s death, Israel intensified its strikes on Hezbollah’s strongholds while eliminating numerous members of the group’s top leadership. Nasrullah had been the ruthless spearhead of operations against Israel since 1992, earning him an almost cult-like status among his supporters. According to the analysis, he was the primary decision-maker as the group gained prominence both within Lebanon and regionally.
Leadership Transition and its Challenges
Hezbollah’s governing Shura Council currently faces the challenge of appointing a successor. Hashem Safieddine, a cleric who was considered a potential replacement, was killed by Israel mere days following Nasrullah’s death. Presently, Hezbollah is under the leadership of multiple leaders, causing a breakdown in communication lines between the Lebanese officials and the group. Nabih Berri, Lebanon’s parliament speaker and head of the Amal Movement, which is a Hezbollah ally, has taken up the mantle to speak on behalf of the group.
Hezbollah Fights On
Despite the heavy battering, Hezbollah fighters persist in launching rocket attacks into Israel daily, even reaching major cities such as Haifa and Tel Aviv. They also claimed a recent drone strike on the home of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Regardless of the ongoing ground invasion by Israeli forces, Hezbollah claims they haven’t been able to completely control any village in Lebanon due to fierce resistance.
Pressure to Disarm
Hezbollah’s prowess far surpasses the national military of Lebanon, as they have retained their weapons after the civil war. Yet, this dominance has drawn renewed criticism from within Lebanon, calling for a significant transformation within the organization. It is increasingly believed that the ceasefire in Lebanon hinges on Hezbollah’s decision to disarm completely.
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 mandates that only the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers should operate south of the Litani River, where Hezbollah has been active. This has been particularly challenging due to the political crisis in Lebanon, which has remained without a president for two years. Hezbollah has been blamed for obstructing the presidential elections.
The Next Step
As Lebanon treads through a critical juncture, there are renewed calls for Hezbollah to be militaristically marginalized and stripped of its weapons. Critics suggest that post-disarmament, Hezbollah can immerse in the political fabric of the country as a regular party. However, these advances also bear the risk of instigating a violent response from Hezbollah, potentially leading to an internal Lebanese conflict. The path forward remains complex, as Lebanon endeavors to alleviate its prolonged crisis.