Key Takeaways:
– The Political Instability Task Force identifies two key factors predicting political instability and violence: anocracy and political parties centered on identity rather than ideology.
– Recent events, including the 2020 U.S. election, suggest possible political instability and violence risk within the United States.
– According to this model, the fate of political stability in the U.S. depends heavily on the personality occupying the White House.
– If the conditions promoting violence persist, peaceful protest and legal resistance are advised as the appropriate pillars against potential political instability.
Assessing Political Instability
A task force dedicated to predicting global political instability revealed two significant indicators. Anocracy, a governmental system combining democratic and authoritarian elements, and political party identification predominantly based on race, religion or ethnicity rather than political ideology.
The US Crosses the Anocracy Threshold
As of December 2020, the United States’ democracy has been deemed an anocracy by definition according to the task force. This tag came after a series of downgrades on the Center for Systemic Peace’s democracy scale, which assessed the 2016 U.S. election as free, but not entirely fair, and raised concerns again in 2020 when the election result was actively contested by the incumbent president.
Parties Divided by Race and Religion
Meanwhile, the two dominant U.S. political parties, Democrats and Republicans, increasingly see voters affiliated along racial or religious lines. Democratic voters predominantly include African Americans, Latinos, Jews, Muslims, and atheists. In contrast, the Republican Party garners immense support from white individuals and evangelical Christians. This division marked another step towards meeting the task force’s model for political instability and violence.
The Aftermath of the Polarization
The results of such divisions are evident in recent events. In January 2021, the alleged high-risk political violence came to pass with the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. The political institutions’ fragility, along with the democracy status in the U.S., heavily depends on the White House occupant, a worrying reality.
Outlook on Future Elections
Looking beyond, the possibility of violence associated with subsequent elections, particularly if Trump is defeated, is a concern. The conditions making election violence probable include winner-take-all-elections, political parties deeply divided and distrusting one another, and one party being predisposed to believe that election fraud must occur if they are defeated.
Potential Scenarios of Violence
The likelihood of violent scenarios varies depending on the election outcome. If Trump loses, a surge of protest might quickly escalate into riots, with far-right militias potentially joining the unrest. Conversely, if Trump wins, the immediate aftermath is likely to be less chaotic. Notwithstanding a significant military force against protests and possibilities of rigging future elections could incite violence from the left.
Individual Role in Preventing Violence
In response to the looming threat of violence, resilience and refusal to be intimidated should be the response of all individuals. Ensuring no panic in response to intimidation tactics is crucial. Additionally, if Trump wins and attempts to dismantle institutions, Americans have a role in actively resisting with all legal means and preparing for peaceful resistance.
Closing Thoughts
Understanding the essential role that peaceful protest plays is necessary, especially for American citizens. Being ready to act with nonviolent resistance and legally combatting any autocratic tendencies is key to preserving democratic values in the face of potential political instability.