Key takeaways:
– Matt Towery and Robert Cahaly correctly predicted battleground states in the 2024 presidential elections.
– Their predictions contradicted majority of established polling organizations, proving more accurate.
– Industry experts including Ann Selzer, NPR, and Marist were off-point with their forecasts.
– According to Sean Hannity, many polling companies should feel embarrassed about their inaccurate results.
Accurate Forecasts from Unlikely Heroes
Metaphorically referring to themselves as the ‘garbage men of pollsters,’ Matt Towery and Robert Cahaly showed the accuracy of their election theories. Their predictions in the presidential election for battleground states were spot on. And all this when so many other experts from the industry made faulty predictions.
Matt Towery, co-founder of InsiderAdvantage, and Robert Cahaly, founder of Trafalgar Group, had quite a victory lap on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show. Their moment of glory further magnified by the missteps of their peers in the polling industry.
Polling Missteps: From Industry Majors to Renowned Pollsters
During his show, Hannity called out to the industry majors. Industry giants have time and again, got their predictions far from right. Renowned pollster Ann Selzer’s pre-election polls missed the mark by 16 points, favoring Vice President Kamala Harris. National Public Radio and Marist also predicted Harris’ popular vote victory with a misleading margin of four points.
Hannity didn’t mince words while criticizing these poll organizations. According to him, they ought to feel ashamed of their flawed predictions.
Towery and Cahaly: Spot-On Theories
On the other hand, Matt Towery’s polls showed a remarkable level of accuracy. His predictions came within 1.4 points of actual results in states like Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Robert Cahaly as well was not far behind, with predictions within 1 point in four of these states and 2 points in Wisconsin.
The duo jokingly referred to themselves as the ‘garbage men of pollsters.’ Despite accuracy in predictions, they lamented that recognition often goes to institutions like The New York Times. Towery proudly pointed out that their predictions were closer than anyone three times in a row. They managed to correctly predict the ‘turnaround’ in the presidential race aftermath following the second plot against Trump.
Cahaly shared a light moment, humorously questioning the very existence of hidden Kamala voters. He criticized their competitors, saying they were in their ‘little clubs’ without any real accountability.
As we look back at the election coverage and predictions, it becomes clear that even pollsters can’t predict the future with certainty. However, Matt Towery and Robert Cahaly did an exceptional job, predicting the election outcome even when esteemed institutions faltered.
It’s safe to say that the 2024 election season has given every pollster something to think about. This event can serve as a turning point to encourage them to refine their methodologies and strive for the level of accuracy achieved by the ‘garbage men of pollsters.’ Towery and Cahaly’s achievement provides a roadmap for all who seek to anticipate voter behavior in future elections.
This incident stands as a robust reminder that every voice matters, every prediction counts, and nothing is certain until the last vote is cast.