Key Takeaways:
• Russia, Iran, and China, or the RICs, are engaging in a low-level shadow war against world order.
• The U.S. Director of National Intelligence asserts that China is the biggest cyber threat to the U.S.
• The West’s response has been generally passive, enabling continued aggression by the RICs.
• The proposed Shadow Response Group would prepare offensive measures against the RICs, hoping to deter future aggression.
• To achieve this, the U.S. would need to invest in its computer networks, hackers, and conduct psychological warfare.
The Rising RIC Problem
Global politico-military tensions have seen a new twist with the RICs – Russia, Iran, and China, firing shots in an incremental war. Mastering the game by provoking and manipulating the West, these countries are involved in a low-level shadow war against the established world order.
Russia is unleashing an expert level cyber battle against the U.S. and NATO. Iran is powering violent proxy groups in the Middle East and China’s aggressive stance in the South China Sea is a matter of concern. China is also accused of engaging in extensive hacking activities.
Examples of Aggression
In 1990, Russia claimed 1,600 square miles in Moldova, earning just mild attention from the international community. Its intrusion into Georgia in 2008 saw the Balkan nation lose considerable land to Russia. Seizing Crimean land from Ukraine in 2014 and again in 2018 saw the Western world merely yawn at these territorial transgressions.
Similarly, Iran backs violent proxy groups in various regions, disrupting peace and security. China, too, claimed Tibet in 1950 and has been pushing its territorial claims in the South China Sea ruthlessly.
Global Response So Far
The provocations by the RICs tend to wash over the U.S. and the West without a significant response. The problem isn’t expressly noticeable, and often, there seems no direct threat to core interests. This reluctance to acknowledge or escalate the situation may lead to ideas of invulnerability among the RICs.
Rise of the Shadow Response Group
With the pressing need to counter the RIC aggression, a proposition for a permanent strike force has been made. The proposed group, named the Shadow Response Group, would enlist members from various defense and intelligence departments in the U.S. They would also welcome insights from NATO and non-NATO allies having specific knowledge of the RIC susceptibilities.
This group would collate a comprehensive list of targets within Russia, Iran, and China. Their purpose would be to integrate ‘incremental’ responses to any attack from these nations, responses that would cause disruption but stop short of escalating to full-scale war.
Supplementing Offensive Tactics
The suggested group would meticulously analyze the adversaries’ systems and networks, identifying their weaknesses. Given the interconnectedness of major sectors in every economy, disrupting one aspect could lead to a systemic slowdown or halt. Thus, causing equal or more harm to the RIC systems as they have done to the U.S. or its allies.
This strategy would include crippling infrastructure, shutdowns of metro systems, and disrupting government computer systems, to list a few examples. Additionally, engaging in psychological warfare, spreading disinformation, and imposing visa bans could be part of their new offensive stratagem.
The end goal of the group’s actions would be to deter the RIC’s from their next strategic move, compelling them to retreat.
Moving Forward
Creating the Shadow Response Group demands a radical mindset shift. The usual respond-after-offense pattern needs to change to a proactive defense mechanism. The Response Group could be crucial in halting the RICs’ incremental attacks, reducing global geopolitical tensions, and avoiding the break of open hostilities.
For the U.S., this would mean investing in strengthening its computer networks, bringing more hackers onboard, and mastering the art of psychological warfare. These measures might sound intimidating but are necessary to ensure global peace and stability. It’s time to show the RIC nations that the U.S., along with its allies, is not going to remain passive in the face of continuous provocations.