Key Takeaways:
- A record 846% increase in trade policy uncertainty index compared to last year.
- Most voters, including 64% of independents, say Trump lacks a clear trade plan.
- Trump’s repeated tariff threats and reversals confuse markets and voters.
- The trade policy uncertainty index is now higher than at any point since 1960.
- Voters think Trump’s policies are becoming less clear over time.
Trade Uncertainty Reaches Record Highs Under Trump
The confusion about President Donald Trump’s trade policies is at an all-time high, and it’s causing a lot of concern for both voters and markets. According to recent data, the trade policy uncertainty index has spiked by a whopping 846% compared to this time last year. To put that into perspective, this index, which has been tracked since 1960, is now higher than it has ever been.
This surge in uncertainty comes after President Trump recently backed down from a threat to impose 50% tariffs on the European Union. This wasn’t the first time Trump has made such a move. He had earlier threatened the EU with reciprocal tariffs, only to pull back on that threat as well.
CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten explains that voters are more confused than ever about Trump’s approach to trade. “The American public does not believe that Donald Trump sticks to his guns,” Enten said, citing a CBS News/YouGov poll. A whopping 55% of voters say Trump does not have a clear plan for tariffs and trade. This number is even higher among independents, with 64% expressing doubt about Trump’s trade strategy.
Why Are Voters So Confused?
Part of the frustration comes from Trump’s pattern of making big threats and then backing down. For example, he threatened the EU with tariffs, only to later withdraw that threat. This back-and-forth has left markets and voters wondering what will happen next.
“It’s not whether you put tariffs on or not,” Enten explained. “It’s whether you’re going to actually do it and stick to your guns. The American public doesn’t think Trump will stick to his guns.”
This lack of clarity is causing record-breaking uncertainty in trade policy. Enten noted that the trade policy uncertainty index is now higher than at any point since 1960. To make matters worse, the index keeps breaking records as the year goes on, suggesting that the confusion is getting worse over time.
How Is This Affecting the Markets?
When Trump threatened the EU with tariffs, the markets responded with futures going up after he backed down. But this rollercoaster of threats and reversals is creating a toxic environment for businesses and investors.
Companies rely on stability to make long-term plans, such as where to build factories or how much to charge for goods. But with Trump’s unpredictable approach, businesses are left guessing what will happen next. This uncertainty can delay investments, slow down production, and even lead to higher prices for consumers.
What Do Voters Think?
The confusion isn’t just limited to the markets. Voters are also feeling the uncertainty. According to Enten, the majority of Americans, including independents, believe Trump does not have a clear plan for trade.
This lack of confidence is growing over time. As Trump’s presidency continues, voters are becoming less confident in his ability to handle trade issues. The percentage of people who say Trump doesn’t have a clear plan has been creeping up, making this a major concern for his administration.
What Does This Mean for the Future?
The surge in trade uncertainty is a sign of deeper issues with Trump’s approach to trade. While some voters may agree with his “tough on trade” rhetoric, the constant threats and reversals are creating chaos.
This uncertainty could have long-term consequences for the economy, as businesses and investors struggle to navigate an unpredictable trade landscape. With the trade policy uncertainty index breaking records, it’s clear that Trump’s approach is causing more confusion than confidence.
Conclusion
In short, President Trump’s trade policies are causing record-breaking uncertainty. Voters, markets, and businesses are all feeling the impact of his unpredictable approach. While Trump may see his tariffs and threats as a way to negotiate better deals, the constant back-and-forth is leaving everyone wondering what comes next.
As the trade policy uncertainty index continues to soar, one thing is clear: the American people want clarity and stability when it comes to trade. Until Trump can provide that, the confusion—and the economic impact—is likely to continue.