Key Takeaways:
- U.S. F-22 Raptors deployed to the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran.
- Secret factor pushing Iran into nuclear talks? Its own people.
- Protests and internal unrest force Iran’s regime to negotiate.
- Talks stuck as Iran refuses to halt uranium enrichment.
- Israel’s military threats add more pressure on Tehran.
The Big Picture: F-22s in the Middle East
On August 8, 2024, U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors jet fighters landed in the U.S. Central Command region. This move is part of a larger strategy to prevent Iran or its allies from escalating tensions. But there’s more to this story.
The real force driving Iran’s leaders to the negotiating table isn’t the U.S. or Europe—it’s their own people. Months of protests and resistance have made Iran’s regime vulnerable. Fearing a nationwide uprising, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, agreed to talks he once called “neither rational nor honorable.”
The Mysterious Actor: Iran’s People
In February 2024, Khamenei met with top officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). They warned him that a military clash with the U.S. could spark nationwide protests. This could collapse the regime. Faced with this threat, Khamenei had no choice but to negotiate.
But what’s really driving these talks? It’s not just external pressure. Iran’s people are rising up. Protests have erupted five times since 2017, with resistance units across the country. These groups, led by the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), are organizing strikes and demonstrations.
Inside the Talks: Iran’s Weak Hand
Iran’s regime is weaker now than during the 2015 nuclear deal. Back then, President Obama led negotiations. Now, internal crises have pushed the regime to the edge.
For over 25 years, two-thirds of Iran’s population has lived in poverty. Billions were spent on nuclear ambitions, leaving little for the people. Yet the regime’s survival depends on this program.
Khamenei entered talks with a plan: keep low-level uranium enrichment (3.67%) and allow a consortium to manage it. But his goal was to raise enrichment to 20% or even 60% later. This would give Iran leverage over the West.
Talks Stuck: “No Hope” for Agreement
Today, negotiations seem stalled. Iranian officials complain the U.S. insists on zero enrichment, which Tehran refuses.
Mohsen Rezaei, a security official, told CNN, “We have no hope… We’re preparing for Plan B.” But details are scarce.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said, “Iran will not surrender.” These statements may just be for show, preparing the public for retreat.
Israel’s Threats Add to the Pressure
Before the fifth round of talks, U.S. media reported Israel might strike Iran’s nuclear sites. This sent panic through the IRGC and government.
In response, Araghchi wrote to the U.N., blaming the U.S. for any attack. The IRGC warned, “Do not try to scare us with military threats.”
But experts say an attack could ignite mass protests. French researchers argue 80% of Iranians oppose the regime. A strike could be the spark that topples it.
The Real Crisis: Internal Unrest
Inside Iran, anger at the regime is boiling over. Resistance units coordinate daily protests, despite brutal crackdowns. These groups have turned local uprisings into nationwide movements.
This internal instability is the true reason Iran is negotiating. The regime is trapped between external pressure and internal revolt.
What’s Next?
The U.S. and Europe are tightening the screws. Europe even considers a “Snapback Plus” clause to limit Iran’s options. The U.S. has made it clear no uranium enrichment is acceptable.
Inside Iran, frustration is at a breaking point. This is the force President Trump likely meant when he said, “The negotiations are going very, very well.”
As the F-22s patrol the skies, the real battle is on the streets of Iran. The mysterious actor in these talks isn’t at the table—it’s the people of Iran, fighting for change.