Key takeaways
– Former labor chief William Beach says every figure Trump showed was wrong
– Beach challenges the way Trump ally Stephen Moore added up job gains
– Beach warns that Trump’s claims can damage market trust in government data
– Doubts in official statistics could lead businesses to use private measures
Introduction
On Sunday a former government economist took aim at President Trump and a White House advisor. He said their recent move could threaten confidence in key reports. A major business magazine reported that two Trump appointees are now clashing about job growth figures.
Sudden Press Conference
Last Thursday night President Trump held an unplanned press event. He showed charts to argue that last week’s jobs report was manipulated. He claimed the report was rigged and that it understated real job gains. Then he blamed the fired Bureau of Labor Statistics chief for the mistake. A White House economist backed the president. He said the tally under President Biden was overstated by about one point five million jobs.
Longtime Friends at Odds
The economist who backed the president is Stephen Moore. He and former BLS Commissioner William Beach have been friends for decades. However Beach now says Moore’s numbers are flawed. He calls them the strangest he has ever seen. Beach also says the final bar on Moore’s chart is wrong. Moore added two kinds of revisions even though one already includes the other. Beach likened that error to counting the same apple twice.
Method Matters
Moore says Beach misunderstood his method. He explains that he compared the numbers first released each month with the final revised figures. Then he summed the differences. Beach disagrees. He argues that Moore used the wrong benchmark data and double counted changes. Therefore the totals on that chart are mathematically wrong.
High Stakes for Markets
According to Beach markets depend on trust in the jobs report. He warns that doubt can spread fast. First business leaders need solid data to plan investments. Then they set budgets and decide whether to hire more staff. If the report looks shaky they add larger safety margins. That means they delay or cancel deals.
Danger of Eroded Trust
Beach says that is more than confusing it is dangerous. He explains that when companies lose faith in official data they turn to other measures. As a result the economy can become less efficient and more uncertain. Smaller firms may lack resources to find reliable alternatives. Large investors might pull back when forecasts look shaky.
What Comes Next
In response Moore defends his figures and claims Beach missed key points. Meanwhile the president stands by his assertion that the jobs report is rigged. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has not changed its numbers. It says the process uses careful checks and regular benchmarks.
Implications for the Future
If top economists disagree publicly on the same data it can shake confidence. That may embolden skeptics of government statistics. It can also raise questions about political influence on agencies. In the long run business leaders rely on stable rules and accurate figures. Without them economic growth can slow.
Conclusion
A rare public dispute between two Trump appointees shows how high the stakes are for jobs data. It also highlights how a single press event can ripple through markets. As the debate continues business and government will watch closely for any change in trust. If that trust erodes further companies may seek their own data. Ultimately that could reshape how we all measure the economy.