Key Takeaways:
- Republicans face a tough road in the midterm elections despite Trump’s wins.
- Trump’s approval dropped from net +8 to net -2 in one month.
- Handling of Epstein files hurts Trump’s support.
- GOP lawmakers have few big laws to show ahead of the vote.
- Democrats lead in most polls for the House majority.
Can Trump’s Wins Save the Midterm Elections?
As the midterm elections loom, top pollster Mark Mitchell sounded the alarm. He said that, despite Donald Trump’s major victories, Republicans are in a tight spot. The polls show Democrats picking up House seats. This trend worries GOP strategists who hoped Trump’s policies would rally voters.
What the Polls Say About the Midterm Elections
Right now, every major pollster predicts Democrats will gain seats in the House. Moreover, most show Democrats winning the majority. This outlook comes as a surprise since many expected post-COVID shifts and redistricting to favor Republicans. However, Mitchell warns that Trump can’t choose which wins voters will credit him for.
Trump’s Policy Wins Fail to Boost Approval
This summer, Trump celebrated the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” the removal of Iran’s nuclear program, and new trade deals. Yet, his approval rating plunged from net +8 in mid-June to net -4 by mid-July. Today, he sits at net -2. Clearly, signing big laws alone did not sway enough voters.
Moreover, some critics say the bill’s messaging lacked clarity. Others felt uneasy about deeper U.S. involvement with Israel. But the biggest blow came from Trump’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files.
The Epstein Files Effect
Trump promised to release Epstein sex trafficking case files. Many supporters saw this as a way to hold elites accountable. Instead, frustration grew when the files remained sealed. As a result, some felt betrayed. Mitchell called it a “canary in the coal mine.” It signaled that Trump might not deliver on key promises. Consequently, his numbers stalled.
This misstep also made crossover voters—Democrats and independents—second guess their support. In turn, Republicans lost momentum in polls tied to the midterm elections.
GOP’s Lack of Legislative Achievements
Beyond Trump, Congress has underperformed. Mitchell pointed out that the 119th Congress delivered almost nothing after promising big reforms. Speaker Mike Johnson once vowed to hang an “America First” banner over the Capitol. Yet, apart from the One Big Beautiful Bill, there is little else to show. Republicans have just 50 legislative days left this year to act.
Because of this, many Trump 2024 voters rate Republicans in Congress poorly. Only 38 percent give them a very favorable grade. That number is disastrous for a party defending seats in the midterm elections.
Trump’s Strategy for the 2026 Midterm Elections
Looking ahead, Trump plans to help rig maps in favor of his picks. He also aims to hand-select candidates who match his style. Plus, he wants an early convention to rally support. Still, it may not be enough.
First, his approval rating remains low. Second, Republicans have yet to convert independents and Democrats he once won over. Lastly, internal divisions persist within the party. Therefore, the midterm elections remain a steep climb for the GOP.
Why the Midterm Elections Remain a Big Test
In short, Donald Trump’s policy wins did not move the needle. His approval drop shows voters need more than big headlines. Ilsos, Congress must deliver real results before the midterm elections. Without fresh wins, Republicans risk losing crucial House seats.
Moreover, the Epstein files controversy exposed limits to Trump’s influence. It reminded voters that promises matter. If the GOP cannot score wins that voters see and appreciate, they will pay the price in November.
Ultimately, the midterm elections will test the Republican Party’s ability to turn high-profile wins into real voter support. So far, the signs are not in their favor.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are the midterm elections so important for Republicans?
Midterm elections decide control of Congress. Republicans need the House majority to drive their agenda. Losing seats would weaken their power.
How did Trump’s approval rating change recently?
Between mid-June and mid-July, Trump’s approval rating fell from net +8 to net -4. Today, it stands at net -2, showing limited recovery.
What happened with the Epstein files promise?
Trump pledged to release Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking case files. The delay frustrated supporters and hurt his credibility.
Can Trump’s new trade deals boost voter support?
So far, trade deals have not improved Trump’s numbers. Voters focus on delivered promises, not announcements.
What can Republicans do before the midterm elections?
They need to pass visible legislation quickly and clearly communicate wins. Otherwise, they risk losing key seats.