Key Takeaways

•  John Bolton says NATO should’ve accepted Ukraine earlier.
• He believes this could have stopped future Russian invasions.
•  France and Germany blocked Ukraine’s NATO path in 2008.
• Russia invaded Ukraine and Georgia after that decision.
•  Bolton shared his thoughts during a speech in London.

NATO Membership: A Missed Opportunity?

Why didn’t NATO let Ukraine join back in 2008? That’s the big question former US National Security Advisor John Bolton is now asking. During a recent event in London, Bolton shared his belief that NATO made a serious mistake by not accepting Ukraine into the alliance sooner.

At the heart of this issue is NATO membership, something Ukraine has wanted for years. Back in 2008, US President George W. Bush pushed for Ukraine and Georgia to join the group quickly. But France and Germany said no. According to Bolton, their decision opened the door for future Russian invasions.

What is NATO and Why Does Ukraine Want to Join?

NATO, short for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is a group of countries that promise to protect each other against attacks. Think of it as a big team of nations, mostly from Europe and North America, working together to keep peace and safety. If one member gets attacked, the others step in to help.

Ukraine sees NATO membership as a way to stay safe from threats—especially from its much larger neighbor, Russia. Being part of NATO would mean that if Russia attacked Ukraine, all the other NATO countries would come to Ukraine’s defense.

Back in 2008, Ukraine hoped to take a big step toward joining. But instead of moving forward, its application faced a delay. And now, many are wondering if that delay changed history for the worse.

What Did John Bolton Say?

Speaking at an event hosted by the Bruges Group, a well-known political think tank in London, Bolton didn’t hold back. He pointed fingers at two major NATO members, France and Germany.

“They didn’t want to upset Russia,” Bolton explained. “But in trying to keep peace, they helped cause later conflicts.”

He believes that if Ukraine and Georgia had joined NATO in 2008, Russia might have thought twice before invading them. After all, attacking a NATO member is a much bigger risk than going after a country on its own.

“When Ukraine wasn’t allowed in,” Bolton said, “Russia saw weakness. And they acted on it.”

What Happened After 2008?

Just a few months after the 2008 NATO meeting, Russia invaded Georgia. It was a short war, but it set the stage for more action. Six years later, in 2014, Russian forces moved into Crimea, a part of Ukraine. And by 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

None of these countries were in NATO. And each time, Russia faced little military pushback from Western powers. That, Bolton argues, shows the cost of not letting Ukraine into NATO earlier.

Could NATO Have Prevented the Wars?

It’s impossible to know for sure, but Bolton believes so. In his view, NATO membership could have worked like a shield. Russia would have been far less likely to invade a country protected by multiple powerful armies.

Others agree. Some leaders and analysts have said in recent years that 2008 was a turning point. Had the West been bolder, they argue, today’s war might have been avoided. Still, some experts say inviting Ukraine into NATO at that time could have triggered conflict earlier.

So it’s a complicated question, but Bolton is clear on where he stands.

Why Did France and Germany Say No?

France and Germany had their reasons. Back in 2008, they worried that accepting Ukraine or Georgia into NATO would anger Russia. They also didn’t think either country was fully ready. Both nations had political problems and military challenges.

At the time, many in Europe didn’t want to pressure Russia. They hoped to keep peace through diplomacy and good relationships. But now, with Ukraine deep in a war, those hopes seem outdated.

Bolton said this kind of thinking underestimated Russia’s ambitions and overestimated the power of “being nice.”

What Happens Next?

Today, Ukraine is even more eager to join NATO. Its leaders say that joining would help end the war and stop Russia from trying again. Many NATO countries now agree, but others still worry about the risks.

If Ukraine becomes a NATO member during the current conflict, it could pull many countries directly into war. That’s a big risk NATO leaders are still trying to figure out.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to defend itself, asking for weapons, money, and support. It hasn’t given up hope that NATO will someday welcome it in.

A Turning Point for NATO?

Bolton’s comments remind everyone just how big that 2008 decision really was. Sometimes, what seems like a small delay can lead to huge consequences later. As Ukraine fights for its future, many are looking back at what could have been—and what needs to happen next.

He hopes the West can learn from these choices. “Strong action early can stop bigger problems later,” Bolton said.

NATO membership remains a powerful symbol—one of safety, stability, and unity. But when politics come into play, even the strongest shields can take time to rise.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why didn’t NATO let Ukraine join in 2008?

France and Germany believed it was too soon and feared angering Russia. They thought Ukraine wasn’t ready politically or militarily.

What is NATO membership, and why does it matter?

NATO membership means countries agree to defend each other. If Ukraine had been a member, NATO could have protected it from Russian attacks.

Could early NATO membership have stopped the war?

Some believe yes. Leaders like John Bolton argue that Russia might not have invaded if Ukraine had NATO protection.

Will Ukraine join NATO now?

It’s still uncertain. While many NATO countries support Ukraine, full membership during an active war comes with serious risks.