Key takeaways:

• The Israeli airstrike in Doha on Sept. 9 hit a busy residential block and killed six civilians.
• The Doha strike breached Qatar’s sovereignty and marked a major escalation in regional conflicts.
• Gulf states now face a crucial test of their ties with Israel and their defense partnerships.

Doha Strike: What Happened in Qatar?

On Sept. 9, Israeli warplanes bombed a building in a crowded neighborhood of Doha. The target was senior Hamas political leaders who Qatar has hosted for years. However, no senior Hamas figure died in the blast. Instead, six civilians lost their lives. Qatari officials and residents see this as a clear breach of their country’s sovereignty. Therefore, many argue the Doha strike could reshape how Gulf states view Israel.

Doha Strike’s Impact on Gulf Ties

This attack landed a heavy blow on Israel’s budding relations across the Gulf. Qatar hosts the largest U.S. airbase in the region and serves as a key back channel for talks. Moreover, Doha sits at the heart of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s political efforts. Thus, the Doha strike not only damaged buildings. It also shook trust in decades-old security pacts. In fact, experts now call this the gravest crisis for Israel’s Gulf ties since the Abraham Accords.

Background of Israel-Gulf Relations

Aside from Saudi Arabia’s limited role in the 1948 war, Gulf states stayed out of direct fights with Israel. Instead, they supported other Arab nations or joined economic boycotts. In the 1990s, Qatar and Oman opened Israeli trade offices. Soon after, two Israeli prime ministers visited Muscat. These steps showed hopes for peace. Yet, violence in the occupied territories often shut those doors again. For instance, in 2010, Israel sent agents to Dubai and assassinated a senior Hamas official. That hit froze ties for years.

A New Chapter After the Arab Spring

After the 2011 uprisings, some Gulf leaders saw shared interests with Israel against rising regional threats. In 2013, Israel sold advanced spyware to the UAE as an olive branch. This opened a path toward the 2020 Abraham Accords. Bahrain and the UAE first signed formal peace deals with Israel. Later, Morocco and Sudan joined. These agreements promised new trade, tourism, and security co-operation. Yet, they always relied on a sense that all sides would avoid direct clashes.

Recent Regional Escalations

Since October 2023, Israel’s military actions have spread far beyond Gaza. It has struck sites in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, and now Qatar. Israel bombed southern Lebanon, hitting civilian towns. It destroyed Syria’s defense ministry and killed key figures in Iran and Yemen. Then came the twelve-day air campaign against Iran itself. This broader fight alarmed Gulf capitals, as they try to focus on economic reforms like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. Thus, many Gulf officials sought to “de-risk” their region and avoid being dragged into a wider war.

Gulf Solidarity and Diplomatic Red Lines

In June, Iran fired missiles at Qatar’s largest U.S. base. That attack was a rare direct strike on a Gulf capital in decades. It drew swift solidarity statements from all GCC members. Meanwhile, Gulf commentators had grown more vocal against Israel’s broad war efforts. Some even called Israel a spoiler of regional stability. Suddenly, the idea of hitting Israeli targets on Gulf soil seemed almost inevitable. Then, the Doha strike crossed that final boundary.

Reactions from Gulf States

Qatar’s prime minister blasted the attack as a breach of international law. In Abu Dhabi, a top foreign policy advisor called it “treacherous.” Saudi writers described Israel as a routine violator of global norms. Meanwhile, the GCC’s renewed unity from the Iran strike now faces the test of a U.S. partner striking one of its own capitals. Gulf officials worry that even if Washington had no prior warning, its deterrence clearly failed. That could make Gulf leaders rethink their reliance on U.S. security guarantees.

Potential Fallout for the Abraham Accords

The Abraham Accords once showed how shared interests could overcome deep hostilities. Yet, if Bahrain or the UAE withdraw from those pacts, the ripple effects would be huge. Tourism, trade deals, and technology partnerships could stall. Even covert military co-ordination against mutual threats might collapse. Furthermore, other Gulf states may push back on hosting any more contentious figures. For example, Oman now hosts Houthi delegates. Gulf capitals will wonder if they too could be targeted in future.

What Comes Next for Gulf Security Partnerships

Gulf monarchies have spent years building partnerships to protect oil, natural gas and mega-projects. Now they must decide if they can continue relying on the same alliances. They must also consider new regional security forums. Some may look to China or Russia for arms, training, or diplomatic backing. Others might expand intra-GCC defense ties to reduce outside dependence. In any case, the Doha strike forces Gulf leaders to rethink old strategies.

Looking Ahead

Despite the damage, there is still room for negotiation. Qatar and Israel could open back-channel talks through mediators like the U.S., Egypt, or Turkey. Saudi Arabia might urge restraint to protect its own Vision 2030 goals. Meanwhile, Egypt and Jordan could encourage calm to safeguard their existing peace treaties with Israel. However, trust is fragile. Gulf publics have reacted strongly to images of their capital under fire. If no apology or repair plan follows soon, political pressure will build against any pro-Israel stance.

Conclusion

The Doha strike represents a turning point in Gulf-Israel relations. It showed that Israel is willing to target Hamas leaders even on allied soil. As a result, Gulf leaders must reassess their diplomatic and security ties. They face a choice between upholding past accords or forging new paths to ensure stability. Whatever they decide, the region’s future now hangs on whether wounded trust can be restored.

FAQs

Why did Israel strike in Doha?

Israel says it targeted senior Hamas political figures who planned attacks. Qatar also hosted some of those leaders. However, no top Hamas official died in the strike.

How did Gulf states react to the Doha strike?

They condemned it as a breach of sovereignty and international law. Qatar led the criticism, and other GCC members backed its stance.

Could this end the Abraham Accords?

It may weaken support for those agreements. Bahrain or the UAE could suspend ties if the strike damages their security views too much.

What role might the U.S. play now?

The U.S. denied prior knowledge of the strike. Yet Gulf leaders may doubt American deterrence. Washington could try to mediate renewed trust.