Key takeaways

• President Trump says Thanksgiving dinner prices will drop 25 percent next year.
• Walmart’s 2025 turkey-day list cuts six staples, skewing any cost drop.
• Tariffs on onions and potatoes help keep food costs high.
• Voter turnout in recent elections shows concern over rising living expenses.

With Thanksgiving three weeks away, many families worry about higher costs. President Trump posted on Truth Social that key Thanksgiving dinner prices will fall by 25 percent compared to last year. He added that his administration keeps costs lower than Democrats on all essentials. Yet a closer look shows his claim misses key facts. In reality, families pay more for many items today than under the previous administration.

What Walmart Data Hides About Thanksgiving Dinner Prices

Trump pointed to a Walmart list to prove his claim. However, the 2025 list only shows 23 items. By contrast, last year’s list had 29 items. Missing staples include onions, celery, sweet potatoes, chicken broth, poultry seasoning, muffin mix, marshmallows, whipped topping and pecan pie. Without those nine items, the overall cost looks lower. In truth, Walmart left off some of the most expensive ingredients. As a result, comparing these two lists gives a false sense of savings on Thanksgiving dinner prices.

Walmart’s list for 2024 tracked every classic side and dessert. This year, it focuses on basic items like turkey, stuffing mix and cranberries. Thus, readers see a big drop in per-person cost. Yet they miss out on everything else. For example, onions and sweet potatoes alone add several dollars to a dinner spread. When those items vanish from the list, the math changes dramatically. Therefore, any headline claiming a 25 percent drop in Thanksgiving dinner prices misses the full picture.

How Import Tariffs Affect Your Thanksgiving Dinner Prices

Several items missing from Walmart’s list are imported goods. The United States brings in roughly 384 million dollars’ worth of onions from Mexico each year. It also imports 251 million dollars’ worth of potatoes. Both Canada and Mexico face tariffs ranging from 25 to 35 percent. These fees push up the final price you pay at the store.

Because of these tariffs, even basic vegetables cost more. Onions and potatoes travel hundreds of miles to reach U.S. tables. When they cross the border, extra taxes get tacked on. Retailers then pass these costs to shoppers. As a result, import fees help explain why certain produce prices stay stubbornly high. So while Trump focuses on a short list of goods, families still face steep bills for many sides on their Thanksgiving table.

Why Overall Food Costs Stay High

Despite arguments about selective price drops, overall food costs remain elevated. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows the consumer price index for food at home hit 315.489 in September 2025. By comparison, it stood at 307.201 in September 2024. In other words, Americans pay more for groceries today than they did last year.

Food items like dairy, meat and fresh produce all contribute to this rise. Supply chain issues and global demand still push prices upward. Even if some turkey prices fall, shoppers feel the pinch across the aisle. Every time they load their cart, they see higher bills at checkout. Therefore, it’s hard to argue that overall Thanksgiving dinner prices are truly lower.

How Voters Reacted to Rising Costs

This week’s elections gave Americans a chance to voice their concerns. Many saw the vote as a referendum on the economy under Trump’s second term. Candidates who promised to make food, housing and healthcare more affordable won by double-digit margins. Their victories sent a clear message about cost-of-living struggles.

When people worry about filling their tables at Thanksgiving, they look for leaders who will lower grocery bills. The recent turnout shows that voters still feel the weight of higher prices. Even with claims of selective savings, many believe costs remain unfairly high. This mood influenced races in battleground districts and deep-blue suburbs alike. In turn, politicians on both sides now face pressure to tackle affordability issues head on.

Wrapping Up the Real Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Prices

In the end, selective data can hide the full story. While Trump highlights a smaller list of goods and touts a 25 percent drop in Thanksgiving dinner prices, many families see only rising costs. Missing items like onions and sweet potatoes boost your grocery bill. Import tariffs add extra fees. And the overall food price index tells a tale of continued increases. As Americans prepare for turkey day, they may want to read beyond the headlines. After all, true savings should cover every dish on the holiday table—pumpkin pie included.

FAQs

What should shoppers do to budget for Thanksgiving dinner?

Start by making your own list with every classic side you need. Track prices over weeks to spot true deals. Consider store brands or frozen produce to cut costs. Plan a potluck with friends to share the load.

How much do import tariffs add to produce prices?

Tariffs on onions and potatoes from Canada and Mexico range from 25 to 35 percent. These extra taxes can tack on cents to each pound, adding up at checkout.

Can shoppers expect major food price drops soon?

Experts say broad price cuts remain unlikely this year. Supply chain challenges and global demand keep many grocery costs elevated. Shoppers may see small dips but not large, across-the-board savings.

Why did some election results focus on food affordability?

Rising grocery bills affect nearly every family. Politicians who promise to address food costs gain voter support. Recent victories show that affordability ranks high on Americans’ priorities.