Key Takeaways
• Sarah Matthews warns that Donald Trump’s economic message may cost Republicans the House in 2026.
• Trump critics on Fox often predict GOP success, but Matthews sees an opening for Democrats.
• Bloomberg’s Jonathan Tamari names Senate Leader John Thune, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and Marjorie Taylor Greene as Congress winners and losers.
• Tamari points to Chuck Schumer and Mike Johnson as the biggest losers in 2025.
• These winners and losers could shape control of Congress before the 2026 midterms.
Congress Winners and Losers of 2025
As the 2026 midterms draw near, many predict a tight fight for the U.S. House. Sarah Matthews, a former Trump deputy press secretary, says President Trump’s “out of touch” talk on the economy will help Democrats retake the House. Meanwhile, Bloomberg Government columnist Jonathan Tamari looks back on 2025 and picks his list of Congress winners and losers. His list includes top GOP and Democratic leaders who either shored up their power or faced setbacks. This look at Congress winners and losers explains why each lawmaker made the cut and what it means for next year’s races.
Why Congress Winners and Losers Matter
In politics, names rise and fall fast. Winners gain clout, set agendas, and shape policy. Losers face pressure from voters and colleagues. Understanding Congress winners and losers shows who might lead debates on health care, taxes, and spending. Moreover, this list hints at which party stands to gain control of the House or Senate. Since control hinges on a few key seats, each victory or stumble matters. For example, a well-timed shutdown strategy can boost a lawmaker’s profile. Conversely, a failed funding fight can stain a career. Thus, voters and party insiders watch Congress winners and losers to gauge momentum.
The Big Winners in Congress
John Thune’s Steady Leadership
Senate Majority Leader John Thune proved a steady hand in 2025. He kept his Republican conference largely united, confirmed Trump’s nominees, and protected the filibuster. By avoiding major blowups with the president, Thune showed he could manage a tense relationship. As a result, he earned praise even from critics. If Republicans lose the House in 2026 but hold the Senate, Thune will become even more critical. His role as a bulwark in divided government will only grow.
Hakeem Jeffries’ Strategic Moves
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries set Democrats’ shutdown plan in motion. He focused attention on health care, winning praise from voters who care about medical costs. By driving a clear message, Jeffries raised his profile and party unity. He ends 2025 closer than ever to flipping the House in 2026. The biggest test for him is whether he can clinch a majority and become speaker. So far, his moves have made him a standout of the cycle.
Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Bold Stance
Outgoing Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene attracted attention with her fierce style. She dared to say out loud what other GOP lawmakers feared. Greene helped force the release of high-profile documents and even landed a spot on a popular daytime show. She capped the year by getting engaged, proving her knack for grabbing headlines. Love her or hate her, Greene showed how a bold voice can shape the party narrative. That made her one of the most talked-about Congress winners and losers of 2025.
The Big Losers in Congress
Chuck Schumer’s Missteps
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer scored points alongside Jeffries during the shutdown. Yet he still bears the stain of a spring funding fiasco. Schumer entered talks with no clear plan and folded under pressure. That moment cost Democrats leverage and trust among activists. Although he could earn praise if he wins back the Senate, many see his long career as nearing its end. In a party craving generational change, Schumer stands as a cautionary tale among Congress winners and losers.
Mike Johnson’s Shaky Grip
House Speaker Mike Johnson faced deep discontent from his own party. Republicans bristled when he kept the House dark for over a month amid a shutdown. By year’s end, rank-and-file members overrode him with discharge petitions. Johnson even felt the need to declare he had not lost control. That public clarification only highlighted his shaky grip on power. With a slim GOP majority, his future looks dim. Party insiders question whether Johnson can hold firm through 2026.
What This Means for 2026
Looking ahead, these Congress winners and losers could sway the midterms. If Democrats harness Matthews’ warning about GOP messaging, they may reclaim the House. Strong figures like Jeffries and Thune will play key roles in shaping campaigns. Conversely, stumbles by Schumer and Johnson leave openings for challengers. In a divided Washington, every seat counts. Thus, voters should watch how these leaders leverage their wins or recover from losses. Ultimately, the next few months will show whether momentum stays or shifts.
FAQs
What is the list of Congress winners and losers?
It’s an informal ranking of lawmakers who gained power or faced setbacks in 2025. Political observers use it to gauge who might lead in 2026.
Why did Sarah Matthews predict a Democratic win?
She believes President Trump’s economic messaging feels out of touch for many voters. That could hurt Republican candidates.
Could Republican messaging improve before 2026?
Yes. Parties often adjust their talking points to match voter concerns. GOP leaders might refine their economic pitch before midterms.
How will these outcomes shape future leaders?
Winners gain influence in policy debates and candidate recruitment. Losers may lose support or exit politics, leading to new faces.