Key takeaways:

• America lost 123,000 blue collar jobs since early 2025.
• The pace of job loss matches the 2008–09 recession and early pandemic.
• Tariffs, immigration raids, and subsidy cuts have hurt hiring.
• A promised blue-collar boom has yet to appear.

Blue collar jobs drop to lowest since 2009

President Trump pledged to revive U.S. manufacturing. He planned to use tariffs on imports and tough trade deals. Yet new data shows a loss of 123,000 blue collar jobs since early 2025. GOP pollster Frank Luntz shared a stark chart on social media. He noted that only the Great Recession and early pandemic saw quicker blue collar jobs declines. This trend has worried workers in construction, mining, utilities, and factories.

Joseph Politano, a monetary policy analyst, created the chart. He detailed the numbers in a recent essay. He warned that the figures likely understate the damage. For example, some regions saw sharper losses in mining and utilities. Moreover, construction hiring has slowed far more than the raw numbers show. These gaps hint that the real toll on blue collar jobs could be deeper.

Why blue collar jobs are disappearing

Several factors have combined to stall growth in blue collar jobs. First, tariffs have raised the cost of steel, aluminum, and other inputs. Higher material costs have forced some factories to cut shifts. Next, immigration raids have scared off workers in construction. Many firms rely on immigrant labor to fill roles quickly. When crews shrink, projects slow down or pause. Finally, cuts to industrial policy subsidies have stalled new factory builds. Over the last year, federal support for plant construction fell by eight percent. This drop slowed hiring in manufacturing and related trades.

Tariffs squeeze manufacturers

Tariffs aimed to protect U.S. factories. Yet they have made raw materials more expensive. Steel costs climbed by double digits. Manufacturers had to pass these costs to buyers or shrink staff. Some small plants faced closure. As a result, blue collar jobs in metalworking and machinery fell sharply. Moreover, higher costs made U.S. goods less competitive abroad. This trend lost export deals and further cut factory hiring.

Immigration raids hit construction

Construction relies heavily on immigrant workers. These crews often work on bridges, roads, and homes. When raids intensify, many workers stop showing up. They fear detainment and deportation. As crews thin out, projects get delayed. Contractors then reduce hiring to match slower work. Consequently, blue collar jobs in building trades have dipped. In some states, the effect has been especially severe.

Subsidy cuts stall factory growth

Federal subsidies can spur new manufacturing plants. They fund research, support tool upgrades, and ease startup costs. Yet recent budgets cut back on these subsidies. Over the past year, planned factory construction fell by more than eight percent. Many local economies were counting on new plants to boost blue collar jobs. Instead, projects have been shelved or scaled back. This slowdown has left thousands of workers without expected openings.

A multifaceted downturn

In his analysis, Politano called the downturn “multifaceted.” He said no single policy caused the slide in blue collar jobs. Rather, a mix of tariffs, enforcement tactics, and budget cuts combined to slow hiring. He also noted that inflation and rising interest rates played a role. Higher borrowing costs have made large projects pricier. This factor has further depressed demand for construction and factory work.

Looking ahead for workers

Despite the losses, some experts see hope on the horizon. They suggest easing tariff barriers to lower input costs. Others call for fair but streamlined immigration policies. They want legal pathways that match labor demand in key sectors. On the subsidy front, many lawmakers propose restoring industrial grants to fund new plants. If these changes happen, blue collar jobs could rebound.

Still, uncertainty remains. Political gridlock in Congress may stall new bills. Trade tensions could flare up again. As a result, the path to recovery in blue collar jobs is far from clear. Meanwhile, many workers face the stress of fewer local job openings. Some are considering retraining or moving to other regions.

What can workers do now? Many experts recommend upskilling. Learning new trades like solar panel installation or electric vehicle repair could open doors. Others suggest exploring apprenticeships in growing fields. By diversifying skills, workers can avoid reliance on any single industry. This approach offers a buffer against policy swings that affect blue collar jobs.

In the end, the promise of a blue-collar boom remains unfulfilled. The latest data show that policies meant to help have sometimes backfired. As the 2026 election approaches, voters will watch these job numbers closely. The fate of blue collar jobs may shape campaign messages and voter opinions.

Frequently asked questions

What counts as blue collar jobs?

Blue collar jobs include work in manufacturing, construction, mining, utilities, and other trades. These roles often require manual labor and technical skills.

How many blue collar jobs has the U.S. lost under Trump?

Since early 2025, America has lost about 123,000 blue collar jobs. This decline matches the worst pace seen during the Great Recession and early pandemic.

Why are tariffs hurting blue collar employment?

Tariffs increase the cost of raw materials like steel and aluminum. Higher costs force some factories and builders to cut staff or delay projects.

Can policy changes reverse the trend?

Experts say easing tariffs, reforming immigration rules, and restoring industrial subsidies could boost hiring. However, political hurdles may delay these shifts.