Key Takeaways

• Ukraine faces the risk of lasting territory loss in its east and south.
• History shows that lands ceded to invaders often stay under occupier control.
• Neither peace talks nor military action offer a clear path to reverse territory loss.
• Only a major crisis or collapse in Russia could restore Ukraine’s lost land.

Understanding territory loss

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has fought to keep its land. Yet many regions in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are under Russian control. Crimea fell in 2014 and remains out of reach. Meanwhile, Kyiv’s leaders insist they will not trade land for peace. However, maps shared in recent peace proposals redraw lines in Russia’s favor. Accordingly, Ukraine may give up about 20 percent of its pre-2014 land. This territory loss could shape the country’s future.

Why territory loss often stays

History offers a clear lesson: territory loss tends to become permanent. During the Winter War of 1939–40, the Soviet Union seized Finland’s Karelia. Finland tried to recover it in the Continuation War of 1941–44 but failed. Then Moscow expelled most Finns and settled Russians there. Today, over 80 percent of Karelia’s residents are ethnic Russians. Similarly, Russia has settled more than 200,000 of its citizens in Crimea and expelled many Ukrainians. Over time, language, culture and politics shift. As a result, recapturing land becomes harder.

Can diplomacy reverse territory loss?

In theory, peace talks could undo land grabs. For example, Egypt regained the Sinai Peninsula from Israel in 1979. Yet that deal relied on strong bargaining and security guarantees. Ukraine lacks similar leverage over Russia. Moscow holds the upper hand after years of war. Moreover, any peace agreement will likely lock in current front lines. Thus, diplomacy alone seems unlikely to reverse territory loss.

Can fighting reverse territory loss?

Some may hope that Ukraine can drive out Russian forces by force. However, Finland’s failure in Karelia warns against this approach. Finland never regained that land through battle. True, other states have won back territory. France recovered Alsace-Lorraine after World War I. But Germany’s defeat in a world war made that possible. Ukraine is far smaller and less powerful than Russia. Western allies will likely avoid a direct war with a nuclear power. Therefore, military reconquest looks dim.

The role of a big crisis

The only clear route to undo territory loss lies outside normal politics. Major shocks to the international order often reverse conquests. For instance, Czechoslovakia regained the Sudetenland in 1945. China recovered Manchuria after World War II. The Baltic states won back independence when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Each case followed a systemic crisis or power collapse. If Russia faces deep turmoil—such as political upheaval or severe economic collapse—Ukraine’s lost regions could return under Kyiv’s control. Yet such a scenario remains uncertain and beyond Ukraine’s direct influence.

What Ukrainians should consider now

Given limited options, Ukraine and its partners must plan for a possibly long occupation. First, they should secure strong international guarantees for Ukraine’s borders. Second, they need programs to support displaced Ukrainians and protect their property rights. Third, Kyiv could invest in intelligence and diplomacy to prepare for any future crisis in Russia. Finally, Ukraine’s EU ambition could help maintain public support and economic strength. By combining legal measures, international pressure and readiness for change, Ukraine may keep its claim alive—even if territory loss is unavoidable in the short term.

FAQs

What does territory loss mean for Ukraine’s future?

Territory loss means Ukraine could lose de facto control over parts of its land. Over time, those areas may integrate into Russia politically and culturally, making recovery much harder.

Could Ukraine regain land through a new peace deal?

It seems unlikely. Peace plans generally reflect the current balance of power, which favors Russia. Ukraine lacks leverage to force Russia to give back occupied areas.

Is military reconquest a real option for Ukraine?

Due to Russia’s size and nuclear capability, a full military reconquest by Ukraine is improbable. Western allies are unlikely to support an offensive that risks a wider war.

What might reverse Ukraine’s territory loss?

History shows that only a major crisis—like a state’s collapse or a world war—can undo deep territorial changes. A severe crisis inside Russia could open a chance for Ukraine to reclaim its land.