Key takeaways:
– Researchers from the National University of Singapore identified elite authority in Southeast Asian nations as reluctant towards a China-led regional order.
– Southeast Asian nations view China as influential but lack trust in its authority to dominate the region.
– China’s major initiatives have not always benefited receiving nations, sometimes causing more harm than good.
– Over half of the ASEAN elites view these nations as having more influence in Southeast Asia compared to China or the U.S.
– China’s regional ambition may be thwarted without regional backing, and cannot be achieved forcefully but through negotiation.
China’s Tough Journey Ahead
If China can’t convince Southeast Asian nations to accept its leadership, its plan for worldwide dominance could take a serious hit. This is according to a new study, which discovered shocking results regarding China’s dominant role in the region. To become a significant power across the globe, China must first court its Southeast Asian neighbors – a daunting task as it appears.
Conflicting Views about China
In a survey of elites in Southeast Asian nations, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, researchers Selina Ho and Terence Lee found varying perceptions of China. While most recognized China’s influential status, they doubted its authority to rule the region. Among the primary issues identified was the significant difference in political values.
China’s Play for Domination
China has consistently sought the endorsement of Southeast Asia in its quest for power. Its ambitions to lead and shape the region’s identity through culture, institutions, norms, and ideas mimic strategies adopted by the U.S. in Latin America, Russia in Eastern Europe, and India in South Asia. Their goal is straightforward: to secure dominance and ensure no rival powers can gain a foothold in the region.
Dealing with ASEAN’s Diversity
Achieving regional influence, however, won’t be a cakewalk for China. The diversity among members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) poses a significant challenge. These nations, with distinct cultural, religious, and political settings, won’t easily fall under China’s hegemony without their consent. Researchers suggest that China must portray its ambitions as mutually beneficial, and attain hegemony through negotiation rather than force.
Doubts Over China’s Initiatives
China has been funding major initiatives around the world as part of its global dominance strategy. But not all these initiatives, notably the Belt and Road Initiative, have been beneficial to the recipient countries. The new megaport in Lima, Peru, is an example, with locals complaining that their fishing grounds have been overtaken by China, while large parts of the city lack basic amenities like running water or sanitation.
The Distrust in Numbers
Interestingly, over 50% of ASEAN elites considered their nations to be the most influential in Southeast Asia. Only 36.2% saw China in the same light. The U.S., despite being a global power, was perceived as influential by only 9.6%. This regional preference for self-dominance over foreign influence indicates a tough path for China.
U.S.- China Tensions
Current strife between the U.S. and China further complicates the situation. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s recent critique of China’s actions in the South China Sea, coupled with China’s accusations of the U.S. militarizing the region, have soured relations. This escalation has created a tenser atmosphere, making it even more difficult for China to assert its dominance in the region.
In conclusion, while China harbors ambitions of global dominance, Southeast Asia remains a critical stumbling block to these dreams. To surmount this obstacle, China must demonstrate that its leadership will benefit these nations, and gain acceptance through negotiation, not force.