Key Takeaways
• Trump favorability among Hispanic voters plunged from net –12 points in February to net –20 points in September.
• Poll by a Latino voter group from Aug. 26 to Sept. 4 shows the shift.
• Republicans dismiss the results as a “junk poll,” despite matching a recent CNN survey.
• Young Hispanic voters and Hispanic men saw even bigger drops in support.
• Democrats see a chance to win Latino voters in the 2026 midterms.
Is Trump favorability among Hispanics falling fast?
What the new poll says about Trump favorability
A recent survey by a Latino voter group reveals a steep decline in Trump favorability among Hispanic voters. The poll ran from August 26 to September 4. It shows a net-negative rating of 20 points in September, down from net-negative 12 points in February. That drop of eight points signals real trouble for the former president in a key voting bloc he once won.
Moreover, this latest result mirrors a CNN poll last week that found similar declines. Consequently, critics on the right blame the media and label both polls as flawed. Yet the consistency between independent surveys suggests the trend is real.
Why Trump favorability is dropping with Hispanics
Several factors may explain why Trump favorability among Hispanic voters has fallen. First, economic concerns weigh heavily on many families. Rising costs for food, rent, and gas leave households stressed. Second, immigration policies under Trump remain controversial for those with ties to migrant communities. Third, a new generation of young Hispanic voters may dislike the former president’s style and rhetoric.
For example, the poll shows Trump favorability among Hispanics aged 18 to 29 fell from 43 percent in February to 33 percent in September. In other words, support slid by ten points. Similarly, favorability among Hispanic men dipped from 52 percent to 47 percent. Those shifts highlight a broader trend away from Trump’s brand within groups that once leaned toward him.
Republican reaction to the poll
National Republican leaders quickly reacted to the findings. Mike Marinella, the National Republican Congressional Committee’s press secretary, called it a “junk poll.” He argued Democrats lack a plan to boost their own support and defended Republicans as the party earning Latino trust.
However, Marinella’s rebuttal did not address why two independent surveys show the same fall. Instead, he claimed Democrats try to spin a false narrative about Hispanic voters. Meanwhile, Latino voters themselves seem more concerned with bread-and-butter issues than political spin.
Opportunity knocks for Democrats
Democrats see a huge opportunity in this shift. Melissa Morales, president of the Latino voter group that did the polling, points out that what began with independents and women has now spread to every major Hispanic subgroup.
Morales says this dip in Trump favorability could turn into a net gain for Democrats in 2026. She notes that many voters unhappy with Trump may not automatically back Democrats. Instead, they might search for a fresh voice that addresses their daily struggles. Therefore, Democratic campaigns could win over hearts and minds by focusing on jobs, health care, and fair immigration reform.
What this means for the 2026 midterms
As the 2026 midterms near, the drop in Trump favorability among Hispanics could affect all Republican candidates. Many voters now link the GOP directly to Trump’s name. If this association stays strong, candidates who try to distance themselves may still feel the fallout.
Furthermore, Hispanic voters represent a growing share of the electorate. Hence, any swing toward Democrats could tip close races in key states. Campaign strategists recognize that appealing to Latino concerns is no longer optional. It’s vital for victory.
Meanwhile, Republicans face a challenge. They must decide whether to embrace Trump fully or try to carve out a new image. Either way, they need to reclaim lost ground among Hispanic voters who once backed the former president.
Turning a liability into a strength
Despite the drop in Trump favorability, Morales stresses that the shift does not guarantee a Democratic win. Yet it creates an opening to turn a liability into a strength. Candidates who listen, learn, and offer real solutions can connect with Latino communities.
For instance, highlighting small business support, education funding, and local investment could resonate. Moreover, featuring Latino voices in campaigns can boost authenticity. In short, Democrats have a chance to reshape the narrative and build lasting trust.
In contrast, if Republicans double down on Trump’s style and policies, they risk further alienating Hispanic voters. On the other hand, a more moderate GOP approach might win back some support. But any change must feel genuine, not just tactical.
Final thoughts
The decline in Trump favorability among Hispanic voters marks a major shift in American politics. It shows how quickly public opinion can change, especially when real-life concerns take center stage. As campaigns gear up for 2026, both parties will watch these trends closely.
One thing is clear: Latino voters will play a decisive role in upcoming elections. Their support can no longer be taken for granted. Consequently, understanding and addressing their needs is crucial for any candidate.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did Trump favorability drop among Hispanic voters?
The poll shows a drop from net-negative 12 points in February to net-negative 20 points in September.
What did Republicans say about the survey?
Republicans called it a “junk poll” and claimed Democrats have no plan to win back Hispanic trust.
Which Hispanic groups showed the biggest decline?
Young Hispanic voters saw a ten-point drop, and Hispanic men saw a five-point drop in favorability.
How could this shift affect the 2026 midterms?
With Hispanic voters growing in number, any swing away from Trump could change results in closely contested states.