Key takeaways

• Democrats refuse to back the GOP’s short-term funding plan
• Health care worries drive the fight over expiring ACA tax credits
• A shutdown could raise premiums by 75 percent and cut Medicaid
• Congress returns after Rosh Hashanah with just two days to act

Democrats in Congress say they will not approve a Republican stopgap that avoids a government shutdown but leaves millions at risk. They worry deeply about the sudden end of health care tax credits under the Affordable Care Act. Moreover, they claim the plan cuts Medicaid and attacks the entire health care system. As the funding deadline nears, both parties stand firm. In the end, Americans face a possible shutdown that could disrupt services, slow pay for federal workers, and hike insurance costs.

What is the government shutdown fight?

A government shutdown happens when Congress fails to agree on funding. Right now, Republicans approved a continuing resolution. It would keep the government open until October 31. However, Democrats were left out of talks. As a result, the CR ignores their key demands. It drops the extended tax credits that help 24 million people afford insurance. In addition, it includes cuts to Medicaid from an earlier GOP budget plan.

When the Senate rejected the measure, lawmakers split right before a holiday break. They left Washington for Rosh Hashanah without a deal. Now, they must return with only two days to avoid a shutdown.

Why Democrats are standing firm

First, they refuse to cave after last spring’s funding spat. In March, Senate Democrats agreed to a GOP plan to keep the lights on. But this time they say it is different. They point out the health care crisis that will follow a lapse in ACA tax credits. Next year, premiums may jump by 75 percent for many families. Millions could lose coverage overnight.

Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office says extending those credits helps 3.8 million extra people by 2035. It will cost about $350 billion. For Democrats, this makes the choice clear. They argue that ignoring a looming government shutdown won’t solve any issues. Instead, they call on Republicans to negotiate in good faith.

In addition, Democrats highlight proposed Medicaid cuts in the earlier GOP budget. They warn that those cuts will harm low-income seniors, children, and people with disabilities. Therefore, they insist any funding plan must protect Medicaid and ACA credits together.

How Republicans defend their approach

Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress. They believe the threat of a shutdown will pressure Democrats to agree soon. They also argue that they already passed a simple CR. It extends current funding levels with no major new policies. Thus, they say it is a responsible step to avoid chaos.

Some GOP members, like a member of the hard-right Freedom Caucus, say they welcome any blame a shutdown brings. They claim they are doing their job by setting deadlines and forcing debate. Others call Democratic objections “weird policy wins” and accuse them of risking a shutdown. They insist they will fund the government if Democrats drop their health care demands.

What happens if a government shutdown occurs

First, hundreds of thousands of federal employees may work without pay. Military and health services could see delays. Park visitors and air travelers might notice cutbacks in customer support. Meanwhile, vital research, and some safety inspections could pause.

Second, the blame game will start right away. Polls often show the public blames the party in charge of Congress and the White House. Right now, that is the GOP. Yet Republicans believe their plan is fair and say Democrats created the crisis by refusing to negotiate.

Third, the health care impact could be severe. If the ACA tax credits end, 24 million people face higher bills. Many families might skip doctor visits or delay treatments. In addition, Medicaid cuts could reduce coverage for those who rely on it most. Consequently, hospitals and clinics serving low-income areas might struggle.

What comes next in the shutdown countdown

Congress returns from its holiday break with only two days until the deadline. Leaders on both sides face hard choices. They could pass the GOP CR as is and risk angering their base. Or they can craft a new deal that protects health care credits and Medicaid.

Some lawmakers urge a short, clean extension to buy more time. Others propose a full year of funding that includes health care fixes. However, reaching any agreement requires compromise. Therefore, both sides will need to talk, and fast.

Likewise, public pressure may grow. Constituents will call offices, share their worries online, and urge action. In a mid-term election cycle, no party wants to appear responsible for a shutdown. Thus, both camps have strong incentives to find common ground.

Finally, if they fail again, the government will start to close nonessential operations on October 1. From there, each day counts. Federal workers and the public will feel the impact. And the political heat will rise.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a continuing resolution and why does it matter

A continuing resolution is a short-term funding bill. It keeps government programs open at current spending levels. Without it, agencies must stop nonessential work.

Why won’t Democrats support the GOP plan

They say it ends key health care tax credits and cuts Medicaid. Millions would lose coverage and face higher premiums.

How will a government shutdown affect federal workers

Most will work without pay until Congress funds the government. Paychecks will face delays, and morale can drop.

When must Congress act to avoid a shutdown

They must pass funding by September 30. After the holiday break, lawmakers have just two days to reach a deal.