Quick Summary: Germany’s AfD Gains Strength as Europe’s Far Right Expands
- AfD polling at 41% in Saxony-Anhalt.
- AfD at 28% nationally in Germany.
- AfD leads Germany’s conservative bloc by 4 points.
- AfD could form first regional government in Germany.
- Orbán’s defeat hasn’t weakened Europe’s far-right.
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Viktor Orbán’s electoral defeat in Hungary was supposed to be a turning point for Europe’s far-right. Yet, the reality is starkly different. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is not just surviving; it’s thriving, especially in Saxony-Anhalt where it leads the polls with 41% ahead of the September 6 state election.
Despite Orbán’s loss, the far-right remains deeply entrenched across Europe. Cas Mudde’s analysis in The Guardian underscores this, pointing to far-right parties in power in Czechia and Italy, and their strong polling in Austria and France. In Germany, the AfD’s rise is particularly telling, with national support at a record 28%, surpassing the conservative bloc by four points.
Orbán’s defeat, while symbolically significant, hasn’t punctured the far-right’s momentum. Instead, it highlights the complexity of European politics, where far-right parties continue to gain ground. The upcoming Saxony-Anhalt election could mark a pivotal moment, potentially leading to the first AfD-led regional government in Germany.
Reuters reported on April 25 that AfD had risen to a record 28% nationally in the INSA poll, widening its lead over Germany’s conservative bloc to 4 points. Reuters reported on May 7 that AfD is on track to become the strongest party in Saxony-Anhalt, with 41% support in an Infratest dimap survey, up 2 points, compared with 26% for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU and just 7% for the SPD.
The biggest new development is that Orbán’s fall has not punctured Europe’s far-right surge at all: on the very day Cas Mudde argues in The Guardian that people are misreading Hungary, fresh polling in Germany showed AfD at 41% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of a September 6 state vote, while a separate late-April INSA poll put the party at a record 28% nationally. That is not just a symbolic lead: it raises the prospect of the first AfD-led regional government in Germany after the September 6 election.
Reuters also noted that coalition math is getting uglier for mainstream parties, with the Left at 12% and both the Greens and BSW at 4%, below the threshold for representation, which means keeping AfD out of power could require increasingly awkward alliances. Reuters reported that his government and aligned entities funneled the equivalent of “over a billion dollars” into institutions including Mathias Corvinus Collegium and the Danube Institute, which functioned as ideological arms of Fidesz and magnets for the international right.
In Germany, the immediate test is the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt election, which could produce the first AfD-led state government if the cordon sanitaire frays or coalition-building fails. He writes that far-right parties are still in government in “Czechia, Italy” and “lead the polls in several others (Austria, France),” and argues that Trump’s current toxicity is situational, not permanent.
His most pointed line is that “the far right is here to stay,” and his warning lands alongside live evidence that the movement is still expanding in major states, not retreating. Mudde’s article explicitly argues that Orbán’s defeat should not be generalized into a continental downturn, and this German data is the clearest proof point available right now.
In Germany, the AfD’s rise is particularly telling, with national support at a record 28%, surpassing the conservative bloc by four points. The biggest new development is that Orbán’s fall has not punctured Europe’s far-right surge at all: on the very day Cas Mudde argues in The Guardian that people are misreading Hungary, fresh polling in Germany showed AfD at 41% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of a September 6 state vote, while a separate late-April INSA poll put the party at a record 28% nationally.
That is not just a symbolic lead: it raises the prospect of the first AfD-led regional government in Germany after the September 6 election. In Germany, the immediate test is the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt election, which could produce the first AfD-led state government if the cordon sanitaire frays or coalition-building fails.