Key Takeaways:

• The GOP has backed Trump even after big losses in 2018 and 2020.
• Conservative writer Jonathan V. Last warns a major 2026 defeat could break that bond.
• He outlines three ways the GOP might finally walk away from Trump.
• A new leader or a health crisis could force Trump out of GOP power.
• Change is likely in 2027, no matter which path the party takes.

Despite setbacks, Donald Trump has led the Republican Party since 2016. He lost the House in 2018 and the White House in 2020. Yet, GOP lawmakers still rallied around him. Now, conservative writer Jonathan V. Last warns that if Republicans suffer big losses in the 2026 midterm elections, the GOP could break its bond with Trump for good.

Why Republicans Have Stuck with Trump So Far

In 2021, many in the GOP briefly doubted Trump after January 6. However, party leaders quickly returned to his side. They shared his views on the courts and on immigration. They also backed his claims of election fraud. In 2024, most Republicans cheered when he won the nomination again.

Even after losing big races, the party did not abandon him. They believed he had the best chance to win. They also saw how his style fired up voters. As a result, they stayed loyal. Yet, they only hold a slim four-seat margin in the House today. They even lost key races in states’ off-year contests this month. This puts them at risk in 2026.

How the GOP Walk Away From Trump Could Happen

Jonathan V. Last describes three ways the GOP walk away from Trump could play out.

First, they might stay loyal despite a huge loss. In 2018, Republicans lost the House but still backed Trump in 2020. However, in 2027 Trump will be a lame-duck president. He may rely on authoritarian moves and a friendlier Federal Reserve chair. Even so, some party insiders might grow tired of his style.

Second, GOP leaders could push him aside. If Republicans lose the House in 2026, party functionaries may seek a new face. They could point to Trump’s election denialism as the cause of defeat. A rising star like Vice President JD Vance might start planning a 2028 bid. Cabinet members who oppose Trump could resign and back another candidate. The next minority leader in Congress might blame Trump for the losses.

Third, a health event could end his run. Trump is 80 in 2026. If he faces a serious health crisis, top Republicans may quietly ease him out. They prefer loyal insiders, often family, to stay in power. Should Trump fall ill, they would likely “gracefully usher him off stage.” Many in the party not tied to him by blood would secretly welcome this outcome.

What Happens After the GOP Walks Away From Trump?

If the GOP walk away from Trump, a new chapter will open. The party might choose a more moderate or fresh face. They would still aim to win back voters on issues like taxes, security, and health care. However, they would likely distance themselves from Trump’s most extreme ideas.

On the other hand, if Trump stays at the center, the GOP could shift further right. They might push for stricter policies on immigration and courts. This could thrill Trump’s base but risk alienating moderate voters. In either case, the party will need to rethink its message for 2028.

What This Means for Voters

For voters, a GOP break with Trump could mean clear choices in the next election. If Republicans pick a new leader, they may focus on unity and stability. Democrats would then have to respond with their own plans on jobs, education, and climate change.

Alternatively, if Trump remains the main figure, the 2028 race could repeat recent patterns. Candidates would battle over culture wars and election rules. This might energize some voters but tire others.

In any scenario, midterm losses in 2026 will send a strong signal. They will show whether Trump’s influence is a winning strategy or a liability. For now, the nation watches and waits.

Looking Ahead

No matter which path unfolds, the GOP walk away from Trump debate will shape American politics. Republicans face a crossroads. They can cling to Trump’s brand of politics or turn the page. Either choice will set the tone for elections to come.

As Jonathan V. Last warns, change is coming. It may start with big losses in the 2026 midterms. Then, the party must decide if it can still win with Trump leading the charge. Voters, candidates, and party insiders all have a stake in this high-stakes moment.

Frequently Asked Questions

Could Republicans really drop Trump after so many years of loyalty?

Yes. A major midterm defeat could force party leaders to seek new leadership. They might blame Trump for the loss and look for a fresh face.

Who might replace Trump as the GOP leader?

Possible successors include Vice President JD Vance or other rising stars. Cabinet figures or members of Congress could also step up if Trump’s support weakens.

What happens if Trump refuses to step aside after a loss?

He could fight on, deepening divisions in the party. This might lead to a messy primary battle or split the GOP vote in 2028.

How likely is a health event scenario?

While no one can predict health issues, age and stress increase risks. Party insiders say they would move quickly to protect the party’s image if Trump faces serious health problems.