Key Takeaways:
– Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has collapsed, leaving the country’s future uncertain.
– The Sunni Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was instrumental in Assad’s overthrow.
– Army Lt. Col. Darin Gaub warns of the continuing struggle for power and potential brutality in Syria.
– Iran’s political and economic instability may pave the way for the collapse of the Iranian regime.
– Post-Assad Syria may see Turkey funding terrorist cells in the region.
Syria After Assad
Syria is standing on shaky ground. The fall of the age-long dictator, Bashar al-Assad, has thrown the future of Syria into a puzzle no one seems to have the pieces to. With Assad’s regime overthrown by the Sunni Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now Syrians are caught between hope and fear.
Syria’s Future: A Power Struggle
Army Lt. Col. Darin Gaub, a former UH-60 Blackhawk pilot and co-founder of Restore Liberty, shares his views on the uncertain future. Gaub suggests that Syria could face an explosion of insurgent groups seeking to take control. These groups could likely come unstopped due to the relaxed control of both Russia and Iran, who have been wrestling with their own problems.
He further draws attention to the power struggle waiting in the wings. Will it be another nation, an insurgent group, a caliphate, or an autocracy? Whoever takes up the mantle, Gaub underscores that the power struggle might result in brutal infighting.
The Iran Conundrum
Apart from the ongoing struggle in Syria, attention turns towards Iran. Iran is battling its own dragons with political infighting over a mandatory hijab law, widespread economic hardship and a weakening force against Israel. Alongside these challenges, a second Trump administration could slap heavy sanctions on the nation for developing nuclear weapons. This could possibly trigger the collapse of the Iranian regime, as per Gaub.
Should Iran’s troubles escalate to a collapse, it might stop the supply of arms and ammunition from Iran to Syria and ultimately to Hezbollah. This could open a window for Turkey to fund the insurgent cells in the region.
Turkey’s Role
Speaking about Turkey, it could be the wild card in the post-Assad Syria context. According to Gaub, Turkey might readily finance the dominant terrorist cells. This raises a serious question about its role as a NATO member – how can a nation, which funds terror cells fighting against the Kurds, reconcile with its status as a Western ally and a member of NATO? Gaub questions if Turkey could eventually be ousted from NATO.
America’s Stand
Despite the ambiguities and uncertainties, Gaub is clear on one thing: America should avoid getting sucked into the chaos. He warns against an expansion of the violence, where it may trigger pressure for the US to intervene. Gaub underscores that understanding the situation is complex, and distinguishing between friend and foe amidst the turmoil of Syria could be a challenging task. In his words, “It’s not our fight”.
In conclusion, the future of Syria after the fall of Assad’s regime is uncertain with potential power struggles, political instability in neighboring Iran, and the uncertain role Turkey might play. However, it’s clear that any direct involvement from America should be strictly avoided to prevent being drawn into the ongoing conflict. The goal is to ensure peace and stability, not just for Syria, but for the entire region.