Quick Summary: One Nations 18% Poll Surge Shakes Up Secret Harbour Race
- Paul Papalia’s resignation on July 6 triggered a by-election in Secret Harbour, creating a volatile political landscape.
- One Nation’s polling surge to 18% in WA makes the by-election a significant test of their political strength.
- Basil Zempilas claims any reduction in Labor’s margin would be a victory for the Liberals.
- The by-election is seen as a potential three-cornered contest between Labor, Liberals, and One Nation.
- Preference strategies and candidate announcements could reshape WA politics ahead of 2029.
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In the wake of Paul Papalia’s abrupt resignation, the political landscape in Western Australia is set to undergo a seismic shift. Secret Harbour, once a Labor stronghold, is now the epicenter of a fierce battle that could redefine party dynamics in the region. One is at the center of this development.
One Nation’s unexpected rise in the polls has injected a new level of unpredictability into the upcoming by-election. With a recent DemosAU poll placing them at 18% of the primary vote, the stakes are higher than ever. This isn’t just a routine election; it’s a litmus test for One Nation’s growing influence.
Basil Zempilas, the Liberal leader, is playing a strategic game. By framing any Labor loss as a victory for the Liberals, he’s setting the stage for a broader narrative of conservative resurgence. His willingness to preference One Nation over Labor adds a layer of complexity to an already volatile contest.
The by-election isn’t just a local affair; it’s a microcosm of national political tensions. With the Liberals, Labor, and One Nation all vying for dominance, the outcome could have far-reaching implications for the future of WA politics. The decisions made in the coming weeks will determine whether Secret Harbour becomes a mere footnote or a pivotal moment in the state’s political history.
On July 9, ABC reported Daniel Pastorelli had secured Papalia’s cabinet vacancy while noting the Liberals were expected to decide that evening whether to run in Secret Harbour, and that the race was already being seen as a test of One Nation’s strength in a seat overlapping federal Liberal Andrew Hastie’s electorate. 4 per cent in the 2025 state election, yet a DemosAU poll taken in early June put the party on 18 per cent of the primary vote in WA, behind Labor and the Liberals but high enough to make the by-election a genuine stress test.
In practical terms, the coming candidate announcements and formal preference decisions will determine whether Secret Harbour becomes merely a bad by-election for Labor or a genuine three-cornered shock that reshapes WA politics ahead of 2029. ” Papalia’s departure ends a 19-year parliamentary career and forced WA Labor into an immediate succession scramble, with Labor MPs called to a caucus meeting on Friday, July 10, to elect a replacement minister.
Also on July 9, federal Opposition Leader Angus Taylor attacked One Nation’s economic platform as something that would “send us broke,” while ABC noted the Secret Harbour by-election would provide a “real-world test” of the party’s support. ” This time, however, the seat is being contested in a more fractured environment, with local concerns over cost of living, housing, law enforcement, a delayed train station and even reported suburb odours being folded into a broader protest mood.
ABC quoted one local voter saying One Nation could offer “a change of direction,” while another said residents “need something here” to help with homelessness, showing how grievance politics and local service issues are combining in a way that could make the result more unpredictable than the raw history of the seat suggests. On July 6, Papalia resigned and Labor opened nominations for preselection.
On July 7, ABC published analysis saying Labor was nervous and highlighting Zempilas’s willingness to put One Nation above Labor on preferences. The most important substantive revelation in the latest coverage is that Secret Harbour is no longer being treated as a routine safe-seat hold, but as a live electoral proving ground for One Nation.
With a recent DemosAU poll placing them at 18% of the primary vote, the stakes are higher than ever. 4 per cent in the 2025 state election, yet a DemosAU poll taken in early June put the party on 18 per cent of the primary vote in WA, behind Labor and the Liberals but high enough to make the by-election a genuine stress test.
” Papalia’s departure ends a 19-year parliamentary career and forced WA Labor into an immediate succession scramble, with Labor MPs called to a caucus meeting on Friday, July 10, to elect a replacement minister. Also on July 9, federal Opposition Leader Angus Taylor attacked One Nation’s economic platform as something that would “send us broke,” while ABC noted the Secret Harbour by-election would provide a “real-world test” of the party’s support.
” This time, however, the seat is being contested in a more fractured environment, with local concerns over cost of living, housing, law enforcement, a delayed train station and even reported suburb odours being folded into a broader protest mood. On July 6, Papalia resigned and Labor opened nominations for preselection.
The scale and speed of this development has caught many observers off guard. Each new update adds another dimension to a story that is still unfolding, and the full picture will only become clear as more verified details emerge from the people and institutions directly involved.
Analysts who have tracked this issue closely say the current moment represents a genuine turning point. The decisions made in the coming weeks are expected to set the direction for months ahead, with ripple effects likely to extend well beyond the immediate actors in the story.
For those directly affected, the practical impact is already visible. People navigating this fast-changing situation are dealing with real consequences while new information continues to reshape what is known and what remains open to interpretation.
Historical parallels offer some context, though experts caution against drawing too close a comparison. Similar situations have played out before, but the specific combination of pressures, personalities, and timing here makes this moment distinct in ways that matter for how it ultimately resolves.
The political and economic dimensions of this story are deeply intertwined. What appears as a single event on the surface is in practice the convergence of multiple pressures that have been building quietly over a longer period than most public reporting has captured.